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With less than a week to go to vote, Judith Collins’ campaign for prime minister is under heavy pressure after a second poll in a week showed her party has no way to power.
Despite the dismal results, Collins said he would remain leader if he lost the October 17 election.
A national deputy who wanted to be appointed told him Stuff that the decision would ultimately not be in their hands.
“At the end of the day, it is not her who decides,” said the deputy. National’s caucus of deputies may include its leaders.
Fiona Goodall / Getty Images
Judith Collins at the first leaders debate last week.
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The survey of Newshub /Reid Research had the support of the Labor Party votes still skyrocketing at 50.1 percent and could govern alone. Party support had dropped 10.1 percentage points since when Newshub Last survey conducted in July, before the outbreak of community groups.
Support for the National party’s vote rose 4.5 percentage points in the July poll, but at 29.6% it was still far behind.
The two natural partners of the major parties were above the five percent threshold, with the Green Party at 6.5 percent and ACT at 6.3 percent.
However, Collins said the feeling on the ground was different.
With these figures, Labor could rule with only a majority of 65 seats, or bring the 8 seats of the Green Party.
National would have just 39 seats, a far cry from the 61 seats needed to govern, even with ACT’s 8 seats in tow.
National would lose 17 of its current MPs, possibly including some of its highest-ranking MPs on the party’s roster.
The national deputy said that it was these analyzes of who would have a job and who would not be going through the minds of the deputies.
Most of National’s heavyweights have secure constituencies, but finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith always makes the list after intentionally losing Epsom, rising star Nicola Willis is running in the unwinnable Wellington Central, and Transportation spokesman Chris Bishop has a slim majority on the fringe Hutt South. .
ROBERT KITCHEN / Things
Caucus heavyweights like Nicola Willis and Paul Goldsmith could be out of work in these poll numbers, depending on how the electoral contests unfold.
Exactly who would leave Parliament would depend on how each electorate race played out: if National won all the electors it won in 2017, there would be no MPs on the list, meaning Goldsmith, Willis and other list MPs like Michael Woodhouse would be it was a job.
If National lost the 9 electorates it won by less than 5,000 votes in the last election, it would retain 6 MPs on the list, including Goldsmith, Willis and Woodhouse.
ACT leader David Seymour said Stuff he believed his party could rise higher in the polls. He said it was important for the opposition to give voters a “clear alternative” to government and a “path to recovery.”
“Time is getting shorter,” Seymour said.
Voting abroad begins Wednesday, while early voting begins Saturday. The Electoral Commission expects a solid majority of the country to vote before Election Day.
The poll was conducted Sept. 16-23, taking into account National’s tax cut policy and Collins’ strong performance in the first debate, but also the discovery of gaps in National’s tax plan.
These results follow a 1 News / Colmar Brunton poll that also had Labor ruling alone, but with a less dominant advantage: 48 percent versus 31 percent for National.
