Leaders’ election debate verdict: Jacinda Ardern lost, but Judith Collins did not win

OPINION: Jacinda Ardern lost the first leaders debate, but Judith Collins did not win.

Collins proved his mettle against National tonight – he’s unlikely to have lost votes.

Ardern, for her part, a now hardened political professional, seemed determined to avoid creating a viral internet meme overnight. If that was the intention, she succeeded.

Collins came out with nothing to lose: swinging, booing, interrupting and taking the fight to the Labor leader. In response, Ardern largely stuck to his talking points, got excited, and generally mirrored Labor’s campaign of risk aversion.

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Collins could barely hide his contempt for the Labor leader: taunting, rolling his eyes, going after the prime minister for mistreating farmers, leaving children poor and taxing New Zealand too much. Ardern, in response, seemed to regard Collins as something of an irascible aunt.

Mostly ignoring her, sometimes responding politely. In her closing statement, she started with the three big disasters she faced on her watch, before ending with the Labor slogan: keep moving forward.

It’s not clear that many voters have changed their minds as a result of this lackluster debate, dominated by Breakfast host John Campbell.

Collins’ tactic appears to be trying to get under Ardern’s skin, while Ardern seemed to be trying to be relentlessly upbeat and likeable, presumably to establish a contrast between the two. He was constantly coming back to Labor talking points.

Both leaders fell back to entrenched positions and didn’t answer many questions.

This is more of a risk for Ardern, whose trademark is authenticity. It looked flat and unusually half-hearted. In his safest and most specific moment, he talked about climate change.

That said, the first debate is always lost by the headline.

It was Collins’ first big showdown. Although he had faced Ardern in Parliament, the intimate nature of the one-on-one debate is different.

Collins had a chance to show off his wares: it was the first time he stood up with the prime minister on equal billing outside of parliament.

In past elections, the leader of the opposition has done well in the first debate for this reason alone.

Just before the debate, the last 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll came out and showed the Labor Party falling to 48 percent, but National was also falling to 31 percent compared to the same poll.

Ultimately, this is not a disaster for National, but it will be if it doesn’t go up. It was good news for the Greens and ACT at 6% and 7% respectively. If these numbers were repeated overnight, Labor could rule alone.

Surprisingly, even inexplicably, Covid-19 was barely mentioned in the debate, even by Ardern.