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A leading epidemiologist says we could be closer to discovering the origin of the second coronavirus outbreak in New Zealand.
Almost six weeks after cases were detected in the Auckland community for the second time, the source of the country’s largest coronavirus cluster remains a mystery.
But genomic testing abroad could soon reveal more clues, according to University of Otago professor of public health Michael Baker.
He also said it was possible that the Covid-19 strain that caused the second coronavirus outbreak in New Zealand had been found in Central America.
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Baker told RNZ that genomic testing showed that people in Central America may have contracted the same strain of the virus around the same time it started spreading here. Although he stressed that it was “speculative” and that this link had not yet been confirmed.
Genomic testing is the sequencing of the genetic material, or RNA, of the virus to find out where a specific case came from, allowing scientists to distinguish it from other cases in the community.
On Monday morning, Baker said the cases related to what is known as the Auckland August cluster had “an unusual genomic lineage.”
Adding a growing number of cases from around the world to an international database could provide clues to the source of the outbreak, he told RNZ.
“I think we will potentially get closer to an answer in the future.”
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Epidemiologist professor Michael Baker says we may soon find out more about the source of the second coronavirus outbreak in the country.
In total, 178 cases have been epidemiologically linked to the cluster, 33 of which are classified as active.
Authorities are also investigating the source of the latest cases, which have been dismissed as connected to the cluster.
One of two people who were confirmed on Sunday that the coronavirus tested positive more than a week after coming out of controlled isolation.
The man, who returned to New Zealand from India on August 27, had two negative results before leaving the isolation administered in Christchurch.
He returned home to Auckland on September 11, but began to feel ill on September 16.
The man and his family began isolating themselves as soon as he developed symptoms, and two days later they were transferred to the Auckland quarantine facility.
Health Ministry officials said this man had a rare and extremely long incubation period after contracting Covid-19 on the flight from India, or took it on his flight from Christchurch to Auckland.
However, Baker said Stuff a third option seemed more likely: that the man was infected in the managed isolation facility.
“If he got infected on day 10, he could have tested negative on day 12 and developed symptoms in Auckland,” Baker said.
National Institutes of Health / AP
Sars-CoV-2 (also known as Covid-19) coronavirus particles. (File photo)
The genome sequencing for his case was consistent with two confirmed cases from the same flight from India to New Zealand that landed on August 27.
When asked whether the government should increase the time that returning New Zealanders spend in controlled isolation, given that some research has rarely found that the virus could have an incubation period of up to 24 days, Baker said the current stay two weeks in managed isolation facilities. is reasonable.
However, he added: “We need to take precautions at the end of that time.”
That could include requiring returnees to spend an additional seven days in isolation at home or testing them a third time.
On Monday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is expected to announce whether Auckland will move from alert “level 2.5” to level 2 and whether other regions will return to level 1 in 48 hours.
While Baker was confident that it was safe for the rest of the country to go to level 1, he recommended that Auckland spend at least another week at level 2.
“We still have to be cautious. We learned it coming out of the last outbreak.
“We are not entirely clear yet, in terms of the possibility of transmission in the [Auckland] community. That is the real challenge, ”he said.
