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Professor Paul Spoonley said there were almost 111,000 more departures than arrivals between March and August, with the most recent departures being primarily migrants whose work visas have expired.
“The outlook would be dire, especially for employers and sectors that depend on migrant labor,” Spoonley said.
He said that even though some sectors highly dependent on migrants, such as tourism and hospitality, are no longer as active, New Zealand was heading for peak seasons for tourism, now domestic, and horticultural production.
Spoonley said that in the next month, the first of the RSE (Recognized Seasonal Employer) and work and vacation visa holders would start to arrive and then rise towards high demand by the end of the year.
But the Covid-19 border restrictions could result in only a fraction of seasonal worker arrivals, and the shortage had the potential to cripple the economic recovery.
“With these arrival and departure trends, there will be significant labor supply challenges during the summer. This does not take into account the large infrastructure projects that will also require skilled migrant labor,” he said.
The number of departures from closing to late August was 462,525, and Spoonley said there was a difference of 110,943 fewer arrivals.
“At first, many of them would have been tourists, but in the last five months, most would have had temporary work or study visas,” he said.
“Even taking into account the fact that part of this would involve family members, it is a significant drop in the numbers available to the New Zealand job market, especially when replacement arrivals are considered.”
The year began with very high travel volume in January with 741,574 arrivals and just under 700,000 departures in January, with New Zealanders taking vacations and inbound tourism.
When New Zealand entered its first lockdown in March, there was a 58 percent drop in arrivals and a 46 percent drop in departures.
In April, departures at 6386 are 1 percent compared to January figures and departures at 31,897 or 4.5 percent compared to January.
“The lower number of exits indicates the fact that many temporary study and work visa holders stayed,” Spoonley said.
By now the borders are closed, except for returning New Zealanders and a small number of exceptional cases approved by the Minister of Immigration.
“But those who have temporary visas are now leaving in much larger numbers compared to arrivals. For every arrival, there are now five departures. This continued until May and the numbers are now leaving a third of what they were even a month earlier. “Spoonley said. .
“The move to alert level 1 sees a modest increase in both arrivals, so far to 9,000, and departures, just under 15,000, and this continues through June, July and August.
“Now the number of New Zealanders returning makes up a significant proportion of arrivals, while there are still those who have temporary visas and depart as flights allow,” Spoonley said.
“As of August, daily arrival figures range from a little over 200 to 500 per day, depending on flight and seat availability. A similar picture is evident in terms of departures, with a range of 200 to 800 per day.” .
The number of trips to Australia is also a fraction of what it was, with roughly 2,500 arrivals per week and between 3,500 and 4,500 departures as temporary visa holders continue to depart.
Now there are very few CSR workers and backpackers still in the country.
Hawke’s Bay, which needs about 10,000 seasonal workers starting next month to prune and collect $ 1 billion worth of fruit throughout the region. It is considering attracting unemployed Kiwis, school dropouts, students on summer vacations, and even prison facility workers during the day.
Earlier this month, the government announced changes to border rules, including the creation of a new “exception category” to allow the return of some temporary work visa holders who are currently abroad, but with strong ties. continuous with this country.
