Ruth Bader Ginsburg Death: What About The Supreme Court Vacancy?

The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has pushed the Senate into uncharted political terrain, unprecedented in recent years for a high court vacancy so close to a presidential election.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promised that “President Trump’s candidate will receive a vote in the full United States Senate.” But he did not say when or how it would happen, and there is great uncertainty about what will come next.

A look at the confirmation process and what we know and don’t know about what’s to come:

CAN THE SENATE FILL THE SEAT BEFORE THE ELECTION?

Yes, but it would require a dizzying pace. Nominations for the Supreme Court have taken about 70 days to pass through the Senate, and the last one, for Brett Kavanaugh, took longer. There are 45 days until the elections. However, there are no set rules on how long the process should take once President Donald Trump announces his election, and some nominations have moved more quickly. It will all come down to politics and votes.

WHAT IS NEEDED TO CONFIRM A NOMINEE?

Only a majority. Republicans control the Senate by a 53-47 margin, meaning they could lose up to three votes and still confirm a judge, if Vice President Mike Pence broke a 50-50 tie. Supreme Court nominations used to require 60 votes for confirmation if any senators objected, but McConnell changed Senate rules in 2017 to allow just 51 votes to be confirmed. He did so when Democrats threatened to obstruct Trump’s first nominee, Judge Neil Gorsuch.

HOW IS THE CAMPAIGN FACTOR FOUND?

Republicans are defending 25 of the 38 seats on the ballot this year, and many of their vulnerable members have been eager to finish the fall session and return home to the election campaign. The Senate is scheduled to take a recess in mid-October, though that schedule could change.

Still, many of the most vulnerable senators may hesitate to vote for a nominee before facing voters in November, and their views could ultimately determine the timeline for action. Others may want to campaign on your eventual vote. McConnell himself is among the candidates for reelection this year.

CAN THE SENATE FILL THE VACANCY AFTER THE ELECTION?

Yes. Republicans could vote for Trump’s candidate in what is known as the “lame duck” session that takes place after the November elections and before the next Congress takes office on January 3. No matter what happens in this year’s election, Republicans are expected to be in charge. of the Senate during that period. The Senate would have until January 20, the date of the presidential inauguration, to act on the Trump candidate. If Trump were re-elected and his election had not been confirmed by the inauguration, he could rename his election as soon as his second term began.

HOW DOES THE PROCESS WORK?

When a vacancy occurs on the Supreme Court, the Constitution gives the president the authority to appoint someone to fill it. It is up to the Senate Judiciary Committee to examine the candidate and hold confirmation hearings. Once the committee approves the nomination, it goes to the full Senate for a final confirmation vote. This process goes through several time-consuming steps. Traditionally, senators want to meet and evaluate the nominee themselves, which requires weeks of meetings throughout the Capitol.

And that’s all assuming the process runs smoothly. In 2018, Kavanaugh’s confirmation fight took weeks longer than expected after Christine Blasey Ford accused him of sexually assaulting her as a teenager. Kavanaugh denied the accusation and it was confirmed by the Senate on a 51-49 vote.

Chief Justice Lindsey Graham declined to comment on the plans. Graham is another Republican running for reelection.

DIDN’T MCCONNELL SAY IN 2016 THAT THE SENATE SHOULD NOT VOTE IN THE SUPREME COURT IN AN ELECTION YEAR?

He did. McConnell shocked Washington in the hours after Justice Antonin Scalia’s death in February 2016 when he announced that the Senate would not vote on then-President Barack Obama’s possible candidate because voters should have their say when choosing the next president. McConnell’s strategy paid off, majestically, for his party. Obama nominated Judge Merrick Garland to fill the job, but he never received a hearing or a vote. Shortly after his inauguration, Trump nominated Gorsuch to fill Scalia’s job. On Friday, four years later, McConnell said the Senate will vote for Trump’s nominee, even if it is weeks, not months, before an election.

WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE 2016?

McConnell says it is different because the Senate and the presidency are in the hands of the same party, which was not the case when a vacancy was opened under Obama in 2016. Democrats say this reasoning is ridiculous and say the vacancy should be kept open until after the inauguration.

Politics is certainly different now, with the country mired in a deadly pandemic. Congress hasn’t been running at full speed since the spring, and much of the regular work, including on committees, is done remotely to prevent the spread of the virus.

In the absence of a solid legislative agenda, court battles have become a focal point for McConnell, fulfilling a long-standing conservative priority. He is building his legacy in confirming conservative judicial candidates. During his tenure, the Senate has confirmed more than 200 judges for the federal appeals and district courts.

WHO ARE THE SENATORS TO SEE?

With a slim majority of 53 seats in the Senate, Republicans have few votes to spare. Republicans Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah and others will be among the senators to watch.

It’s not just the qualifications of Trump’s nominee, but the political calculation of a vote so tied to an election that it could shape his position. Collins is in a close race for her own re-election in Maine, and she and Murkowski have long been watched for their support of women’s right to abortion under Roe vs. Wade.

Murkowski and Romney have been critical of Trump and protectors of the Senate institution. Others facing close reelection races in their states, including Colorado’s Cory Gardner, could face pressure not to vote before or immediately after the election, especially if they lost their seats.

WHAT DID TRUMP SAY ON FRIDAY? BIDEN?

Trump has yet to say how he will move forward. She called Ginsburg an “amazing woman” and made no mention of holding her vacant Supreme Court seat when speaking to reporters after a rally in Bemidji, Minnesota. Democratic candidate Joe Biden said the winner of the November election should choose Ginsburg’s replacement. “There is no question, let me be clear, that the voters must choose the president and the president must choose the judge for the Senate to consider,” Biden said Friday.

– AP