Covid 19 coronavirus: increased travel could thwart government level 1 plans – Covid Modeller

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A scientist modeling Covid-19 risk says an increase in travelers leaving Auckland could derail the government’s plan to move the rest of the country to level 1 next week.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced an extension of the current alert level setting, level “2.5” in Auckland and level 2 for the rest of the country, but anticipated a relaxation of the restrictions next week.

If cases continue to decline, Auckland could have larger meetings starting next Wednesday, while the rest of the country could move to level 1 starting next Tuesday.

In the level 1 decline in freedoms yesterday, Ardern referenced the model by Professor Shaun Hendy’s team from the University of Auckland, who said there was a 20 to 30 percent risk of Covid-19 spreading outside of Auckland.

That will decline as the number of cases continues to fall, but Hendy said it will grow with an increase in the number of travelers leaving Auckland.

“The masks and the ability to track passengers will mitigate to some extent, but it is still a concern to know that there will be many additional flight seats available.”

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Travel is expected to increase following Ardern’s announcement to relax the physical distance rules for planes, buses and trains, although all will have to wear masks.

That means there will be no more seating restrictions, a move welcomed by struggling hospitality and tour operators who have seen customers limited by alert level restrictions.

Air NZ immediately announced 180,000 additional fares, including 9,000 additional seats during the upcoming school holidays.

Jetstar announced the resumption of flights from Thursday, including dozens of weekly flights from Auckland.

The cabinet will meet on Monday, September 21, to review the latest data before deciding whether to confirm the relaxation of restrictions in Auckland and the rest of the country.

But it will not have data on whether a greater number of travelers could have contributed to the spread of Covid-19 outside of Auckland.

This is because it generally takes a week to 10 days before configuration changes occur in the daily case numbers.

University of Otago epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said it was a calculated risk.

“We may get away with it, we may not.”

Baker has been calling for fuller planes and buses as long as people wear masks, which was adopted by Chief Health Officer Ashley Bloomfield in his cabinet council yesterday.

But Baker also supported a travel ban for hotspots at level 2.5.

“The regional model doesn’t really work without it because you run the risk of spreading the virus across the country, potentially.

“I don’t think any place in New Zealand should get to level 1 anytime soon because there are no barriers to having a larger outbreak.”

Without a travel ban, he said continued protections were still necessary for the rest of the country.

He and other public health experts have pushed for more nuanced alert levels, including a level 1.5 with the use of masks in higher-risk indoor settings and a limit of 50 people in social gatherings.

But Hospitality New Zealand said the ongoing restrictions will push some operators to the “brink of collapse.”

“On the positive side, the social distancing requirements in public transportation have been eased. That will be a huge relief for our hotel tour operators,” said Executive Director Julie White.

Yesterday there was only one new case, a girl between 5 and 9 years old who was connected to the Auckland group and was already isolated.

There were 96 active cases, including three people in the hospital, two of them in the ICU.

Hendy backed the Cabinet’s decision despite concerns about the 89 close contacts who have been told to stay home after sharing exercise classes with a Jet Park quarantine nurse at Les Mills in Takapuna.

On Sunday the nurse’s positive test for Covid-19 was reported.

Les Mills classes were held on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, meaning any new cases should come up before Cabinet makes its next alert level decision on Monday.

Hendy said that fewer people traveled from Auckland to the South Island than around the North Island, so the risk of spread to the South Island was lower – 5 to 10 percent.

NZ First leader Winston Peters, National Party leader Judith Collins, and Law Enforcement leader David Seymour called for the South Island, which has not had a case in four months, drop out of level 2.

“The director general of health has stated that the Covid-19 outbreak in Auckland is contained,” said Peters, who was part of the cabinet discussions yesterday.

“Furthermore, he believes there is a low risk of transmission outside Auckland.”

Peters campaigned on the South Island last week and said people already had a level 1 mindset.

“Not because they are against the government’s Covid-19 response, but because they have applied their own ‘common sense’ test to their risk of exposure to the virus.”

Ardern said it was not unusual for New Zealand’s prime ministers to have a different opinion, and Peters’s comments were being made in the context of an election campaign.