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Since January 2020, governments around the world have imposed restrictions on international travel due to the spread of Covid-19 around the world.
New Zealand introduced border closures in March, limiting entry primarily to returning New Zealanders.
However, the latest figures released by Statistics New Zealand showed a net migration gain of 79,400 in the year ending in June, raising New Zealand’s population by 2.1% or 105,500 to 5,025,000.
Migrant arrivals increased 8.7% to 153,900 and departures decreased 16.6% to 74,500. New Zealand citizens made up the largest group of those who arrived, with 45,500.
“The magnitude of the abrupt halt in immigration is alarming. In June 2020, New Zealand experienced a much higher influx of arrivals and a large drop in departures, although four months this year involved closure and minimal migration.” , sociologist. Said Professor Paul Spoonley.
“It is one of the most unusual years in terms of immigration, with a historical and extremely high net migration figure, despite the fact that a third of that year had minimal migration in or out.”
Spoonley said monthly figures for June this year compared to June 2019 showed a nearly 90% drop in both arrivals and departures, an indication of how Covid-19 had altered migrant flows in and out of New Zeeland.
“This has ended the highest period (2013-2020) of internal migration and net migration gains,” he said.
“Over the past decade, these net gains had contributed to two-thirds of New Zealand’s annual population growth. The lack of migrants will significantly slow the growth of the country’s population over the next two years.”
Spoonley said the largest group of New Zealanders to return was from Australia, especially since Australian government policies had made it difficult for Kiwis to access welfare and other benefits.
While those returning from Australia come from across the skill spectrum, he said those returning from other parts of the world tended to be highly educated and skilled New Zealanders.
Spoonley said the government now needs to focus its efforts and capitalize on these returnees to help with their recovery from Covid.
“New Zealand has not done a good job of utilizing the significant resources of its current diaspora, and now is the time to seek to capitalize on their skills and experiences,” he said.
“But at the moment, it is a ‘hands-off’ approach by the Government, in addition to border management and isolation on arrival. Given that it could be some time before migration resumes, why not focus on those who may come? – returnees from New Zealand. “
Spoonley said there are still many unanswered questions: what is their skill mix, if they get a job, where will they go in New Zealand, and if returnees will compensate previous migrants, most of whom fall into the skilled migrant category.
He predicts that the longer the pandemic is mismanaged abroad and there is a privilege of local citizens over migrants, the more New Zealanders will return.
“There are one or two forecasts that suggest that even a ‘new’ normal in terms of international mobility might not be in place until 2023,” Spoonley added.
The population estimates will be revised on September 23 to fully incorporate the results of the census coverage and the 2018 census.
The numbers
Provisional migration estimates for the year ended June 2020 compared to June 2019:
• Arrivals of migrants: 153,900 (± 1,500), 8.7% more.
• Departure of migrants: 74,500 (± 600), a decrease of 16.6%.
• Annual net migration gain: 79,400 (± 1600), compared to 52,300 (± 200).
• For migrant arrivals in June 2020, New Zealand citizens were the largest group, with 45,500 (± 700) arrivals.
(Source: Stats NZ)
