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As New Zealand prepares to significantly ease coronavirus restrictions, some countries that have already at least partially released their societies are facing outbreaks in new Covid-19 cases.
In a briefing on Tuesday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern acknowledged that she was concerned about the possibility that cases in New Zealand could start to increase again.
“Outbreaks are a concern, second waves are a concern,” Ardern said, referring to recent news of increases in the Covid-19 cases from Germany, Singapore and South Korea.
“Of course, we care about that and that is why we are making sure to prioritize trying to get people back to work, their incomes flowing again, but also that we manage risk and that has made some difficult decisions but we hope they are balanced and care for as many kiwis as possible. “
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Ardern said the continued closure of New Zealand’s borders to foreign tourists was an important part of the decision to drop to coronavirus level 2 on Thursday.
The government had to prioritize the ability of people within New Zealand “to work, play and experience New Zealand as freely as they can,” Ardern said.
“That means for now having to maintain restrictions on our border. The compensation would have been to lift the border restrictions and we all live with restrictions in our daily lives.”
“I recognize that it is a trade-off, but what I hope we can do for tourism is to make national tourism move and also be in a position as soon as we can at least make the Australian market move too.”
ESR bioinformatics leader Dr. Joep de Ligt previously said that at least 35 unique coronavirus introductions came to this country from abroad.
“After the border closes, we have seen no new introductions or at least direct travel links. This supports closing the border as a very effective measure to prevent further importation,” de Ligt said.
The increasing number of cases in some countries that have eased the restrictions has alarmed the World Health Organization, with its chief emergency officer, Dr. Michael Ryan, warning on Monday (Tuesday NZT) that contract tracking systems for some countries were inadequate.
“Closing your eyes and trying to get through this blind is as silly an equation as I’ve seen,” Ryan said. “And I am really concerned that certain countries prepare to drive with severe blindness in the next few months. ”
A second wave of people infected with the virus is expected in many countries, and Germany’s top disease control official said last week that second and third wave infections were likely.
“This is a pandemic. And in a pandemic, this virus will cause disease until 60 to 70 percent of the population is infected,” Lothar Wieler, head of the Robert Koch Institute public health agency, told reporters.
A second wave would come “with great certainty”. Most experts shared that belief, and many also expected a third wave, he said.
But an article published by the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at the University of Oxford said that making absolute statements of certainty about the second waves was reckless, given the substantial uncertainties and novelty of the evidence.
“We do not know for sure whether Covid will recur in stages or sporadic outbreaks or disappear entirely,” the article said.
Most of those who think about the second wave theory stemmed from the 1918-20 “Spanish Flu” outbreak, according to the article. That event began in the spring of the northern hemisphere in 1918, with a deadlier strain believed to have emerged in August 1918.
But the CEBM article says there were several problems reviewing and interpreting the evidence for the Spanish flu.