Covid 19 coronavirus: Matthew Hooton – Jacinda Ardern throws dice on jobs, lives and reelection

“There go the people. I must follow them, because I am their leader” – attributed to Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin and Mahatma Gandhi

It may appear that Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had the option to move to level 2 but not her.

As demonstrated on Auckland’s waterfront and Sumner Beach in Christchurch, New Zealanders have had enough blockade. With new Covid-19 cases almost as low as in all Australian states except Victoria, the Government’s ability to enforce our exceptionally tough rules had been eroded.

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Maintaining effective social control required the Prime Minister to follow the public to level 2.

The Government’s Covid-19 response was never determined solely by “science,” whatever that means. At every turning point, Jacinda Ardern had to exercise her judgment, balancing suppression of the virus with long-term public health concerns, economic and fiscal impact, and maintaining public compliance.

Since the time he finally abandoned his plans for an interior Christchurch memorial service with 7,000 troops on March 15, Ardern’s judgments have been mostly correct, including today.

There is no shame in Ardern considering public opinion in his decision making, both when closing and when opening. Neither economy. Even University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker now acknowledges that public health measures must be balanced with getting people back to work. His advocacy is shifting to mandatory masks on public transportation and the public health risks of alcohol-induced behavior.

For all that, Ardern’s Tier 2 announcement today represents yet another massive roll of the dice, but this time with the odds against it.

Twenty-odd people arriving in pubs in the coming weeks can read international data as well as anyone. They know that they are hardly at risk of dying or even having severe symptoms of Covid-19.

Even in a possibly reckless Sweden, only 0.2 percent of its 1.3 million twenty-something have tested positive for Covid-19. Seven have died, the equivalent of three deaths in that cohort in New Zealand.

As long as they stay away from their parents and grandparents, twentysomethings can hardly be faulted for accepting those odds and returning to their normal lives. The same is broadly true for all other healthy people, even those in their 60s.

Depending on which pre-lock model was credible, the lock has saved the lives of a few thousand or tens of thousands of aging baby boomers. It was the only possible call.

But now, as the Prime Minister’s decision acknowledges, the costs of maintaining the rigor of the past seven weeks can no longer be justified, given that the numbers of cases are so low and with new knowledge of the relatively small number of people who are at significant risk of becoming seriously ill or dying.

Therefore, our dangerous but necessary transition from collective responsibility to greater individual choice begins. People over the age of 70 or with diabetes or respiratory conditions appear to be better isolated, but everyone else now has greater options about the risk they are willing to bear.

Ardern has been criticized for sometimes speaking to the public as if we were babies, but today’s decision treats us all as adults. Will we blow it up?

Ardern, the human being, will desperately hope that his calculated roll of the dice does not lead to a second and perhaps more dangerous wave.

Ardern, the national leader, will feel the same, knowing that she would not be able to achieve public compliance for a second complete blockade, and that its long-term impacts on public, economic and fiscal health would not justify it.

Furthermore, politics Ardern knows his dreams of ruling without NZ First and the Greens also depend on the dice going well, not only in May and June, but also in July and August, when the trans-Tasmanian border must surely return. to open up.

The government was forced to risk level 2 because circumstances demanded it. Even Ardern’s fiercest critics must hope his bet pays off.

– Matthew Hooton is an Auckland-based public relations consultant and lobbyist.

• Covid19.govt.nz – The official government Covid-19 advisory website