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COMMENTARY:
The term “flatten the curve” is now well known in the battle to stop the spread of Covid-19. But scientists have been using similar terms regarding carbon emissions and biodiversity loss for decades.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says this Covid-19 pandemic is the world’s biggest challenge since World War II. So how do we use what we have learned from the pandemic to address the climate crisis and rapidly reduce carbon emissions?
I think we can all agree that going back to how things were before the pandemic is not particularly inspiring; we can do better than that. This reboot presents an opportunity to rebuild things in ways we didn’t have the means to do before. But what does that look like and what can we all do?
During the Covid-19 pandemic, all fields of science, business, and the community, not just health experts, have been working tirelessly to try to dominate Covid-19. We have seen in an immediate crisis how to respond as a community when we are given good scientific advice. This is science and citizenship working together to solve a collective problem. The collaborative approach has shown us that when people put aside world values and visions and listen to science, we can overcome adversity in times of crisis.
Now, we need to use the same community-focused thinking to try to tackle climate and environmental issues. People are now used to receiving daily updates on Covid-19 cases (eg confirmed, probable, recovered, deaths). The charts, numbers, and figures have helped us understand how tracking is done.
Covid-19’s exponential growth has shown us how fast things can change in a short period of time. Over a longer period of time, carbon emissions and their resulting effects have also increased exponentially. If this exponential increase in emissions continues in the coming years, the severity of extreme weather events will not be at all like the impacts we are seeing today. And like the coronavirus, the possibility of severe damage from climate change will also cause significant financial loss and hardship for many.
Peter Drucker said: “what is measured is managed”. We’ve seen how we’ve effectively handled our response to Covid-19 numbers in New Zealand, and people have been following these numbers closely through daily updates. But we have not seen the same approach when measuring or tracking information on climate change. The global average for atmospheric CO2 was approximately 280 ppm (parts per million) before the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century. It is now above 400 ppm, a level that has not been seen since the mid-Pliocene epoch (5 – 3 million years ago), where temperatures were 2C to 3.5C higher than pre-industrial levels, and sea levels 15-20 meters higher than today.
The Guardian publishes the global CO2 level for Mauna Loa in Hawaii on its weather page every day. Perhaps in New Zealand, the media could publish or present daily CO2 measurements from Niwa’s atmospheric monitoring station at Baring Head along with stock market prices or in conjunction with stock market prices. Other measures, such as air pollution in Auckland, could also be published every day to create public awareness and acceptance.
While the severity of Australia’s wildfire crisis seems a distant memory now, the impacts of severe weather events such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones have not disappeared. Climate breakdown is already hurting people and ecosystems around the world. The need to communicate daily weather information and illustrate how we are tracking is more important than ever.
Young people already know the urgency of reducing carbon emissions, as is increasingly evident with climate strikes, and their refusal to accept the status quo. Unfortunately, the decision makers today are the ones who determine your future.
Saying that we are in “good hands” and waiting another 10 years to act is too late. What we all do in the next 10 years will determine whether we live in a world that is 2C, 3C, or 4C warmer than today by 2100. Above 2C, we cross many dangerous tipping points, including widespread ecosystem collapse and devastating extreme weather events such as deadly heat waves and severe flooding.
Of course, the main priority right now is to address the immediate risks of the coronavirus. But this reboot presents an opportunity to pave the way for future generations to grow in an era of sustainability.
To go beyond fossil fuels and into a world with low-carbon food production, where air pollution is even lower than during closure, where water quality is better than it is today, where resources and products are designed for multiple use rather than single use and where ecosystems are restored, storing carbon and enhancing biodiversity.
• Covid19.govt.nz – The official government Covid-19 advisory website
As we rebuild and redesign society, we can choose the future in which we want to live. Through the lessons learned from this pandemic, imagine the new golden age of sustainability that we could build in the next decade.
• Jacob Anderson is the program manager at BLAKE and is a geologist pursuing his PhD at the University of Otago. He is the host of Anderson’s Odyssey, a podcast available on Spotify and Apple podcasts and on YouTube.
