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The global coronavirus pandemic will change air travel as we know it, with more emphasis on passenger health and, in turn, higher air fares, experts say.
For years, airlines and travelers have been enjoying a golden age of travel. Low oil prices and fierce competition meant affordable airfare for passengers, while a strong global economy, increased collaboration, and new fuel-efficient aircraft allowed airlines to create exciting new products and routes.
But the deadly Covid-19 virus that has spread across the world halted that golden age when passenger demand fell off a cliff and countries around the world closed their borders in a bid to stem the spread of the disease.
The International Air Transport Association (Iata), which represents nearly 300 airlines, said some 25 million jobs were at risk of disappearing as airlines punished their fleets and began to cut costs in an attempt to survive the Covid-19 crisis.
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In early April, the number of flights globally decreased by 80 percent compared to the same time in 2019, and passenger revenue was expected to drop 55 percent in 2020
Iata Chief Executive Alexandre de Juniac said the industry has never before been closed to this scale.
“Consequently, we have no experience in getting it started. It will be complicated,” de Juniac said.
DAVID BLANCO / MATERIAL
Air travel, as we know it, will change, industry experts say.
“We will have to adapt operations and processes to avoid reinfections through imported cases.”
A multi-stakeholder approach would be essential, he said.
“We don’t expect to restart the same industry that we closed a few weeks ago.”
He said the industry did not want to repeat the mistakes made after the September 11 terrorist attacks, when many new processes were imposed in an uncoordinated way.
“We end up with a mess of measures that we are still solving today.”
After September 11, world travel demand plummeted and a series of new measures were introduced in the aviation sector to improve security and reduce the possibility of future airplane hijackings.
Increased security and control was introduced at the airport, identification checks were tightened, cabin doors were closed and bulletproof, and passengers were prohibited from bringing liquids of certain amounts on planes.
JOHN ANTHONY / THINGS
Aviation consultant Christoph Mueller says air fares should increase if social distancing is required on planes.
Aviation consultant Christoph Mueller, who was CEO of Malaysia Airlines and Aer Lingus, spoke to Capa – Center for Aviation about what the future of aviation could be like.
As with September 11, the Covid-19 pandemic would emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic.
He said that an international regulator would need to intervene so that each country does not present different types of analysis and legislation.
“Someone who is really backed by intelligence experience has to work out the rules of the game very quickly,” Mueller said.
“We have to get down to work very soon to have consistent measures around the world that are truly protected by medical professionals to tell us and the traveling public what is safe and insecure.”
AP
Strict detection measures were introduced in the aviation sector after September 11. Covid-19 will have a similar impact, experts say.
It would probably have to start with “a very high standard” that could be lowered as the situation improved, he said.
“It has to be an understandable and universal rule for everyone, otherwise we will fail.”
Increasing detection measures would come at a huge cost to the aviation industry, he said.
If social distancing were necessary on airplanes, that would also cost airlines because they couldn’t carry as many passengers. As a result, air fares should go up, he said.
DAVID BLANCO / MATERIAL
Passengers may have to queue at airports to be medically screened before flying in the future.
One of his main concerns, he said, was that the airline industry would lag 10-15 years behind innovation, predominantly on the client side.
The industry had reached a stage where money was available to digitize the industry in all areas, from customer experience to airline operations, he said.
“Literally, each and every process on an airline could have been made more efficient.
“My biggest fear is that at the moment these funds will not be available for the foreseeable future and the industry is left behind.”
Corporate travel, traditionally a large revenue stream for airlines, would be strongly affected in the future as a result of Covid-19, he said.
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The need for social distancing in the cabins would affect the margins of the airline and would lead to more expensive air fares.
Historically, when the aviation sector was hit by a crisis, such as September 11 and the Sars epidemic, corporations had introduced new travel regulations that meant fewer people could travel, he said.
There would also be a psychological impact on passengers who might be deterred from air travel due to perceived risks, he said.
Those fears would dissipate faster in Asia, where there was less penetration of Covid-19 than in the United States and Europe, he said.
Recovery from air travel in Asia was more likely to be a “V-shape,” he said.
Capa President Peter Harbison said healthcare had come to the forefront of the aviation sector and would change the way the industry operated.
“This type of event will repeat itself,” said Harbison.
“We are seeing the same kind of impact that September 11 had on security.”
Passengers would have to be medically screened before passing through an airport and boarding a plane, he said.
Perhaps there will be half the people on a plane in the future due to social distancing rules, which would have to be standardized across the industry, he said.
While domestic travel can be recovered in the short term, border controls were going to substantially restrict any short-term international travel, he said.
“International will continue to be very, very difficult, probably for a long time.”
DAVID HALLET / STUFF
Airports are arguably higher-risk environments than planes for transmission, says Capa president Peter Harbison.
Economist Benje Patterson said a vaccine would have to be available before 100 percent free movement of people occurs internationally.
Passengers would need a vaccination certificate to board international planes, he said.
Once the Level 4 alert restrictions in New Zealand were lifted, it would be a while before the border restrictions on international air travel were fully relaxed, he said.
However, there was a potential midpoint in the short term that could allow for an earlier reopening of the borders, he said.
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Economist Benje Patterson says that rapid test kits could allow a midpoint in opening our borders.
That would involve a rapid test of all international passengers to detect coronaviruses, both before boarding and upon arrival in the country, he said.
“Anyone with a positive result would deny the approach, isolate himself, or quarantine,” said Patterson.
Getting to an intermediate point would require a wide availability of rapid test kits, which could be performed with high precision, low cost and without invading medical laboratory testing resources, he said.
“There are already positive signs that such rapid tests are just around the corner.”
