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It will be very difficult to completely remove Covid-19 from circulation in New Zealand when so many cases are believed to be asymptomatic, says a leading UK virologist.
Dr. Chris Smith, clinical virologist consultant at Cambridge University and one of BBC Radio 5 LiveNaked Scientists says that it has been talking to many virologists and vaccine experts in the past few weeks and that they are very skeptical.
Photo: RNZ / Claire Eastham-Farrelly
“Most people are of the opinion, given how well optimized this new coronavirus is, it has a very high chance of becoming another circulating coronavirus and causing seasonal infections and cold-like symptoms or, in rare cases, more severe outbreaks. Because by then presumably it happens that the vast majority of us will have become immune to it, either because a vaccine was invented or because we naturally became infected with it. “
But he believes it will take a long time before a vaccine is ready, and in the meantime, many countries will not be able to maintain closure measures, and the disease will resurface as a result.
It will be particularly difficult for the poorest nations to continue to impose restrictions and maintain social distancing, he told Kim Hill in Saturday morning.
“Therefore, it is not a fact that these measures control this in many parts of the world and we will end the resurgence of the virus in many ways in many places, so it will be very difficult to keep it out of the countries, even if we do achieve it. suppression very effectively at home. “
He supported the UK’s decision to extend its blockade for at least another three weeks, saying that the benefits of the blockade were only just beginning to show.
The virus cycle can last about a month from the time someone contracts it, incubates, the person becomes ill, becomes seriously ill, and possibly dies.
So it was important that the control measures remain in force for some time.
The New Zealand cabinet will decide on Monday whether the country will remain on Alert Level 4 from midnight on Wednesday, April 22 or go to Level 3.
Regardless of whether the country lowers its alertness level, New Zealanders are recommended to stay at least 2 meters from people outside their bubble.
Dr. Smith said he believed that social distancing would be necessary for the foreseeable future, until a vaccine is available, or the entire population is immune.
But he said 2m was probably too close.
An experiment he did with naked scientists several years ago showed that the mucus particles projected by a sneeze could fly at a speed of 100 km / h.
“One hundred kilometers per hour is quite fast and if someone sneezes the particles will be beyond 2 meters and in [less] beyond the moment you can say ‘achoo’, so people don’t have time to get out of the way and if you fill the air around you with millions of virus particles then your millions will just hang in the air and someone goes to come and breathe them. “
There was no way to create a “safe environment” unless all people in contact with each other were proven to be healthy, but social distancing was the best we could do to minimize the risk of infection, he said.
As for those particles left by a sneeze to stay in the air? They stay there for hours, Dr. Smith said.
“Those particles will be airborne for hours, so if someone was in an area where they were symptomatic for an extended period of time, the amount of infectious material in the air will slowly increase, not them.
“And so it reaches a point where the infectivity of an air patch has increased significantly when people pass through it.
“So I don’t think it’s as simple as saying it’s 2 meters because viruses don’t come with tape measures.”
