Covirus 19 coronavirus: Concerns about evidence of unknown cases before lifting block

The lack of data on the “mysterious” Covid-19 cases not linked to overseas travel has worried scientists about the possibility of getting out of the blockade.

According to the Ministry of Health, the source of 10 percent of the 1,386 confirmed and probable cases is unknown, and community transmission is believed to account for only two percent of all cases.

But public health experts say it is not clear whether those in “groups” originated through foreign travel or community transmission.

University of Otago public health professor Nick Wilson said that before the country went off alert level 4, there had to be “next-generation” data systems that indicated exactly what was happening.

“Current data still has a long way to go. We need to be able to clarify the percentage of cases found among quarantined travelers, the percentage that is linked to such travelers, and then those that have no link to such travelers: transmission community “.

According to the Ministry of Health, 39 percent of the cases are linked to recent trips abroad, 48 percent are in contact with a known case, 10 percent are still under investigation and only two percent come from the community transmission.

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But Wilson said it was not clear how many of the “contact cases” were related to the trips, or that they were actually community broadcast.

“All of those groups, with the exception of some travel groups, really do refer to community transmission. And this is much more important than the cases of returning travelers who are now in quarantine.”

Director-General for Health Ashley Bloomfield said today that some of those unknown cases date back several weeks and that officials reviewed them “rigorously” to find the source.

This has seen the proportion of unexplained cases drop from 11 to 10 percent since Tuesday, he said.

Until the original source was identified, a “wide fence” would be placed around the unknown cases.

Wilson and several colleagues were calling for digital technologies to help increase contact tracing to help with contact tracing, border controls, early diagnosis, and surveillance.

They also believed that state-of-the-art test and surveillance systems should be ready before exiting the closure, which involved extensive testing from moderate to severe cases to asymptomatic people, including sewage testing to ensure the virus has been completely eliminated. .

“Without these things in place or almost ready, we are risking that the elimination goal will not be achieved if the blocking levels are reduced,” Wilson said.

“And we don’t want to have to go back to the blockade once it’s done, as this would be terrible for business confidence and public confidence.”

Wilson said the people who called for an end to the blockade and who compared New Zealand to Australia and its more relaxed approach did not understand it, as they focused on a different strategy: suppression rather than elimination.

“So it makes a lot of sense that Australia doesn’t need such a rigorous block.”

Dr. Michael Baker, professor of public health at the University of Otago, said that without precise data on the number of cases within New Zealand communities, it was not safe to move to a lower alert level.

“We need to know which cases have just arrived in the country and have been quarantined, and which have originated in the community.

“Because if we have community transmission, it is a dangerous time to get out of the running of the bulls.”

As New Zealanders return from abroad, the number of positive cases will likely continue to increase, and these should be separated from those reported in the community.

“As for the data, we cannot say that at this time.”

The Ministry of Health recently said it was working to streamline information flows about groups between themselves, district health boards, and testing labs, including information on transmission routes, level of containment, timing of new cases and the proportion of close contacts tracked.

Dr. Ayesha Verrall, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Otago, also conducted an audit of the contact tracing program, which will be presented to government ministers over the next 24 hours, before being made public.

Today’s 20 new cases brought the total number of cases in New Zealand to 1,386, of which 728 have already been recovered.

Covid-19’s official death toll stands at nine. Thirteen people are in the hospital and three in the ICU.

On Monday, the government will decide whether to extend the blockade throughout the country, bring the country to alert to level 3, or potentially maintain the blockade only in certain regions of the country.