The Treasury will reveal economic forecasts, including GDP growth and unemployment.

New Treasury projections show that the unemployment rate can stay below 10 percent if the government comes to the table with additional financial support to help the country resist the Covid-19 crash.

However, without new support measures, the Treasury predicts that the unemployment rate in New Zealand could reach up to 13.5 percent if the blockade is maintained for four weeks.

If the blockade were extended, that figure could reach between 17.5 and 26 percent.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson said that in the scenario where New Zealand remains at level 4 for the planned four weeks, and the Government provides additional support to companies, the unemployment rate may return to 5 percent by 2021.

“They should not be taken as a guide to the government’s thinking or decision about changing alert levels,” Robertson said in a statement this morning.

“That decision will be made on April 20, as the prime minister has foreshadowed it.”

But he said the economic scenarios released by the Treasury today show that the government was right to adopt its “go hard and early” approach in the fight against Covid-19.

Robertson notes that due to New Zealand’s underlying economic strength, the economy may rebound to be $ 70 billion larger by 2024 than in 2019.

He is pointing out that the government has even more planned spending outside of the more than $ 25 billion already spent on the Covid-19 fight.

“The Budget is also another important part of the response, and will include significant support to respond to and recover from Covid-19.

“As is common with the Budget, there may be advance announcements, especially when they relate to urgent Covid-19 response activities,” said Grant Robertson.

He added that the work was already “well advanced in greater fiscal support,” in other words, more government spending.

Tomorrow, Robertson will give an online speech to Business New Zealand that sets out the next steps in our plan to cushion the impact of the blockade.

This will include other measures to help companies.

“The best way to protect the economy is to fight this virus, which is why we have acted quickly and decisively to eliminate COVID-19.”

“This will give our businesses and the economy the best chance to get moving again to the other side.”

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New Zealand’s unemployment rate is currently just over 4%, or 111,000 people, however that number is expected to rise significantly.

Treasury Secretary Caralee McLiesh previously said New Zealand’s unemployment rate could probably reach “double digits.”

Unemployment at 10 percent would imply that the number of unemployed would be around 275,000.

In an interview with the Herald, Finance Minister Grant Robertson appeared to have strong expectations that unemployment would rise to double digits.

He said the true state of unemployment could be masked by a wage subsidy scheme that has seen wages for about half of New Zealand’s taxpayer-subsidized workforce, but that would eventually come to an end.

“I think low double digits is where we are going to be in the short term,” Robertson said of the unemployment rate.

“However, that must be seen in conjunction with the fact that 1.3 million New Zealanders are receiving the wage subsidy.

He also indicated that the economy could be reduced by more than 15 percent “at the stage where we are.”

Almost all economists expect New Zealand to go into recession; however, the question for many is how long and how deep would it be.

• Covid19.govt.nz – The official government Covid-19 advisory website