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The new coronavirus pandemic has forced millions of people to live under strict closure conditions, but the psychology of human behavior predicts that it will be more difficult to comply with the rules the longer the situation continues.
New Zealand has now reached a midpoint of a four-week comprehensive block and there have already been some rule violations.
JOHN KIRK-ANDERSON / THINGS
The queues are spread across a supermarket.
The most prominent of them was Health Minister David Clark, who nearly lost his job this week for ignoring the blocking rules when riding a mountain bike and driving his family 20 km to a beach.
You will not be the last to break the rules. During a pandemic, fear is one of the core emotional responses, and so far, most people have met blocking conditions for fear of becoming infected. But as time passes, people’s resolution may begin to deteriorate.
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Psychology of a pandemic
A group of more than 40 psychologists is reviewing research relevant to people’s behavior during a pandemic to advance the fight against Covid-19.
The psychological factors that motivate us to stay in our bubble are a combination of individual, group, and social considerations.
At a very basic level, human behavior is governed by the principles of reward.
If what we do is followed by a perceived reward, we are more likely to continue doing it. Not getting sick is a reward, but it may not be perceived as such for a long time since most of us were not sick in the first place.
This lack of reward booster could be intensified by an optimism bias: “It won’t happen to me,” which can grow stronger than our anxiety as time passes and the perceived threat is reduced.
Outside of our individual psychology, broader social factors come into play. In times of uncertainty, we seek others to guide our own behavior as they set our social norms.
Often, there is some degree of confusion about guidelines about what people can do, for example, when they exercise during confinement. Watching others go surfing, mountain bike, and picnic in a park can lead to a “if they’re doing it, why can’t I?”
To counter this, the government must continue to appeal to our shared sense of identity and highlight examples of punishment for those who break the rules. But an overemphasis on punishment runs the risk of people adhering to the rules simply by social approval, which means they can comply in public but not in private.
Being punished can also generate resentment and can lead people to look for loopholes in the rules.
Group behavior
To last the distance at the highest level of blocking, people must cooperate as a group. If everyone complies, we will all be fine.
The opposite was evident in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic with the panic-induced purchase of toilet paper, face masks, and other “essentials.” Here we saw emotion-based decision making and the government trying to counter it with fact-based information.
Fiona Goodall / Getty
A nurse talks to a member of the public at a Covid-19 test station in Morningside, Auckland.
There is evidence that in times of major crisis groups can prioritize their local interests, such as keeping their family, neighborhood or community safe.
An example of such local activity in New Zealand is the initiative by some iwi (tribal groups) to establish roadblocks around their communities to control access by non-local residents.
But this has the potential to extend to vigilantism if local protection interests are combined with fear. You can prioritize the interests of a few over the greater good.
Cultural factors
Cultural and political psychology also have an impact on our behavior during confinement. Generally speaking, different cultures can be classified as “tight” or “loose”.
Strict cultures (China, Singapore) tend to be more rule-bound and less open, but they are also associated with more order and self-regulation.
By contrast, more flexible cultures (UK, USA) place more emphasis on individual freedoms and rights, and are consequently slow to self-regulate against government requirements.
Australia seems to fall towards the looser end of the spectrum, while New Zealanders are somewhere in the middle.
The challenge will be how we respond as our society continues to “squeeze” with strict rules while boredom and annoyance occur.
Political polarization, which has increased markedly in recent years, can be exacerbated by being physically distant from others.
There is a danger that by staying in our bubbles, both physical and virtual, we fall into “echo chambers” where we only hear voices and opinions similar to ours.
If this chamber is filled with resentment at the continuing restrictions on our freedom, it can break our motivation to stay home. But polarization can be overcome by helping people identify with a greater cause, and this was often invoked in times of war.
New Zealanders will eventually emerge from the level 4 blockade, but you may be in a brave new world. It is difficult to know what to expect since the alerts are relaxed. People will need clear guidelines at each stage and will help adapt to a new normal. 
Dougal Sutherland is a clinical psychologist at Te Herenga Waka, Victoria University of Wellington and an associate at Umbrella Health.
Audio provided by RNZ.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
