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Electorates with a higher proportion of rural voters weren’t immune to the wave of red that swept across the country, but it seems that most farmers stayed really blue.
National’s share of the vote dropped 40-50% in areas where its dominance had never been seriously challenged.
Chris McKeen / Stuff
Waimakariri MP Matt Doocey is one of two remaining national party MPs in the Greater Christchurch region following the historic Labor election result.
Rangitata, which encompasses the interior of central and southern Canterbury, was notably won by Jo Luxton de Labor afterward. Vote Compass considers him the most conservative electorate in the country.
On the North Island, the East Coast seat held by Anne Tolley since 2005 was seized this year by Kiri Allan, while Kieran McAnulty claimed Wairarapa after serving as a national seat since that same election.
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The party vote was dominated by Labor in many others.
National leader Judith Collins said during the campaign that the government was regulating farmers “in oblivion.”
SUPPLIED
Federated Farmers President Andrew Hoggard says some farmers were expressing disappointment with Labor’s victory on social media.
National Federated Farmers President Andrew Hoggard said Sunday that the rural community covered a variety of views, but that the majority would favor National.
Many had expressed their disappointment at the Labor victory on social media.
“I think there would be a few who would be upset about it, outnumbering those who are happy.”
Hoggard believed there would be a battle over agricultural issues “no matter who is in charge.”
There were still many positive results for National outside of urban centers.
National MP Matt Doocey held the Waimakariri seat in North Canterbury, which includes the townships of Rangiora and Oxford, but by a narrow 1976 vote margin, down from 10,766 in 2017.
He admitted it was a tough fight against Labor’s Dan Rosewarne, who came close to winning on several points.
Robyn Edie / Stuff
Farmers from the south east hold a tractor rally on Gore’s main street over new government rules on fresh water.
National’s party vote was reduced by 45 percent, falling to 11,720 votes from 21,398 votes in 2017.
“I think people were voting for continuity,” Doocey said of the switch to Labor.
National support was affected by the party’s lack of “internal discipline”, he said.
“I mean, if they can’t manage themselves, no one is going to trust them to run the country.”
Rosewarne said Labor’s surge in votes was the result of “a fantastic prime minister,” a strong central campaign and a desire for certainty about the country’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
JOHN BISSET / Stuff
Jo Luxton won the Rangitata seat for Labor.
“They wanted direction and stability, and they saw it in the Labor Party.”
North Canterbury Federated Farmers President Cameron Henderson said farmers were concerned about the substantial shift in support from blue to red, but this was more a reflection of urban voters within predominantly rural constituencies.
There were definitely “strategic farmers” who voted for Labor in an effort to avoid a Labor-green government, he said.
Farmers were concerned about the Greens’ influence on policies that they felt would put them at a disadvantage, Henderson said.
JOHN KIRK-ANDERSON / Stuff
Selwyn’s new MP, Nicola Grigg, left, and National Party leader Judith Collins, on the campaign trail in Rolleston.
While some of the Labor policies were not popular with farmers, they were more “bearable” than those of the Greens.
Hoggard said that in some “flipped” constituencies MPs on the Labor list had worked hard to raise their profile and engage with the community and this had paid off when they campaigned for the electorate.
In Rangitata, for example, the vote for National’s party fell 39 percent, from 20,106 votes in 2017 to 12,244 in the Saturday vote.
Luxton, a congresswoman on the 2017 Labor list and ranked 41st on the list, had a total of 18,876 on election night – 3,484 ahead of National’s Megan Hands, 67 on her party’s list, which ended with 15,392.
Federated Farmer mid-Canterbury President David Clark said Luxton was well known to the farming community and had earned their respect for the past three years.
Selwyn’s newly elected MP, Nicola Grigg of National, was surprised by the narrow margin, but had not taken victory for granted.
The party’s votes for National fell in Canterbury’s mostly rural electorate by 50 percent in the 2017 election, when it garnered 26,003 votes from the party.
In 2017, Amy Adams claimed victory with a huge majority of 19,639 votes. This time, Grigg won by 4,943 votes against Labor’s Reuben Davidson.
Grigg said his “instinct” was that voters in Rolleston and Lincoln Townships were more likely behind the switch to Labor than were rural voters in the electorate.
At Northland, National’s Matt King could have held onto his seat, but it was by one of the narrowest margins of the night, at 742. In 2017, his margin was 1,389.
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Former Tukituki National MP Lawrence Yule says some national voters went to ACT.
The party’s vote in its electorate moved away from the Nacional by 40 percent.
In Taranaki / King Country, National’s share of the party vote fell to 37.5%, representing a 40% difference from National.
The majority of National’s Barbara Kuriger suffered a crushing 76 percent from 15,259 to 3632.
Former Hastings Mayor and Tukituki MP Lawrence Yule lost his seat to Labor candidate Anna Lorck by 772 votes, after beating her in 2017 by 2,813 votes.
National had a 40 percent drop in support from 19,166 in 2017 to 11,221 this time.
Yule said that around 1,500 people had “twice dialed” ACT and the New Conservative Party, giving them both the party vote and the electorate “despite the fact that those parties were conducting single voting campaigns.”
He believed they would have voted for him, but was not surprised by the change in party support.
“I think in rural New Zealand, [with] the reforms to the gun law, the concern about climate change … some of those people just said, ‘no, we need ACT to defend us.’
