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Labor is still well ahead of National in the latest poll, with just nine days to go, but it couldn’t rule without help from the Greens.
Meanwhile, National is running out of time to change the opinion of voters, as nearly 500,000 people have already cast their vote.
Support for the Labor Party vote in the 1 News / Colmar Brunton poll held steady at 47 percent, while National fell one point to 32 percent support.
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ACT held steady at 8 percent, while the Green Party fell one point to 7 percent.
With these numbers, National would have no way to power, while Labor could rule with the Green Party.
The poll was conducted between October 3-7 and has a 3.1 percent margin of error.
Joe Johnson / Stuff
Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins on stage at the James Hay Theater during the press leaders debate.
Labor would win 60 seats, just one less than most.
The Green Party, which has pledged not to support National, would win 8 seats, enough to form a government with Labor.
National would win 41 seats, 20 fewer than most. Even with ACT’s 11 seats, the bloc on the right would only have 52 seats, far fewer than the 61 needed.
If the Greens fell below the 5 percent threshold, Labor could probably rule alone, as the wasted vote would be redistributed.
In the prime minister’s preferred bets, Labor leader Jacinda Ardern fell four points, but remained well ahead of national leader Judith Collins.
Ardern was at 50 percent, while Collins was unchanged at 23 percent.
In the latest 1 News / Colmar Brunton poll, completed in late September, Labor was far ahead, but no longer had enough support to rule alone, as the party had done in previous polls.
It was at 47 percent, National at 33 percent, ACT at 8 percent, and the Green Party at 7 percent.
Since the last poll, Ardern and Collins have faced each other in two debates.
Collins has also come under fire for a leaked email from National MP Denise Lee, in which she criticizes Collins for announcing a policy to review the Auckland Council without consulting Lee, who is the Auckland local body affairs spokesperson.
A deputy, who spoke with Stuff, On condition of anonymity, he said no internal party polls had been shown in weeks and the strategy appeared to be “whatever Judith comes up with at the time.”
A large number of votes have already been cast early – 478,960 by the end of Wednesday.
That represents nearly a fifth of the total vote in the last election, and the Election Commission expects about 60 percent of voters to end up voting before Election Day on October 17.
