[ad_1]
ANALYSIS: Just as the National Party seemed to emerge from Labor’s Covid-19 shadow by launching its great temporary nature income tax policy, the worst happened: Labor found a mistake.
This was not a dubious problem of “hiding expenses and increasing revenues”, but a basic mistake of using numbers from the May budget, instead of last week’s pre-election fiscal update.
However, the net result was the same. National’s sums didn’t add up. You will need to find an additional $ 4 billion over the next 10 years to fill the gap.
But that could also be in the shadows by late Monday, if Auckland remains at Level 2.5 for longer, rather than dropping to Level 2 as expected, after a new curious case of Covid-19 broke out.
READ MORE:
* Election 2020: Judith Collins is unleashed at the launch of National’s ‘telethon’ campaign
* 2020 Election: ‘Fair Police’ – National’s Paul Goldsmith admits to accounting error as Labor points to $ 4 billion hole
* ACT Launches Debt Cuts Calculator As Other Parties Increase Their Billion Dollar Spending Promises
Robert Kitchin / Things / Things
Paul Goldsmith acknowledged the mistake on Sunday but downplayed its importance.
One person who tested negative during controlled isolation tested positive after feeling unwell a few days after going out. Currently, it seems that the case is relatively contained, there were only contacts within the family.
At this stage, it is understood that there is no information that will materially change the government’s plan to move Auckland from level 2 and the rest of the country to level 1 on Tuesday.
That will be a relief to the many businesses outside Auckland, particularly in hospitality, which will be opening quickly. In Auckland, it will be a slower process.
Labor will have a well-being factor as life approaches its normal rhythms in the next few days.
The Government is also likely to point a way back to Tier 1 for Auckland after the Cabinet meets on Monday.
Certainly NZ First and the headstrong politicians within Labor will understand, even with a dominant lead in the polls, being late in raising alert levels, particularly in the South Island, will start to upset people.
But it was a budget error of National, not the daily numbers of the Ministry of Health Covid-19, the work focused on Sunday.
On the Esplanade of Parliament on a staggeringly sunny day in Wellington, Grant Robertson contained his joy at finding this mistake, but barely.
Labor was clearly caught off guard by a bold and politically sophisticated policy published by National’s Paul Goldsmith on Friday. Now, they could say, for the next four weeks, that National had a $ 4 billion hole in its costs.
Yet it was the symbolism, rather than the mistake, that mattered: it goes to the competition.
The $ 4 billion over 10 years, particularly in today’s climate, is little more than an era of rounding, but it will have to be found somewhere.
The number came from the fact that National plans to stop contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund. That money, according to their plans, could be used to pay off the debt. The Super Fund is a Labor monument, so the party is committed to keeping the money earmarked for it.
Regardless, National set aside $ 19.1 billion in savings over a decade using the May Budget numbers, but the updated PREFU tables said only $ 14.8 billion would go to the Super Fund during the same period.
However, to be fair, the real figure we should be talking about is the cost over the next four years.
That’s the official Treasury forecast period. Beyond that, there are projections that the Treasury does say to deal with a grain of salt.
A comparison of the BEFU and PREFU tables shows that the difference over the official forecast period for the next four years is $ 1.72 billion. It is something, but not much.
In the grand scheme of Covid-19 recovery, the new budget is something of a money spin and $ 4 billion doesn’t mean much. But Labor goes to great lengths to point out that this is not John Key and Bill English’s game of competition.
The two former prime ministers did not make a significant appearance at National’s campaign launch on Sunday.
