2020 Election: Audrey Young – Some Very Unusual Results in TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll

OPINION

Anyone looking forward to an exciting final week of the election campaign might have been disappointed in the latest political poll tonight.

The movement of parties was not more than one point up or down or no change to the survey 10 days ago; hardly the conditions for a spectacular finale on October 17.

But there is slightly more than Labor ahead of National by 15 points in 1 News Colmar Brunton’s poll.

Little being the keyword.

The great interest will be in the campaigns and results of the Greens and New Zealand First, both current partners of the Labor Party.

In the current poll, Labor would be a short MP to rule alone and would need the Greens.

A two-point difference between the survey results, 6 for the Greens and 2.4 percent for NZ First, would make a dramatic difference in the kind of government work it seems certain it will lead.

It’s quite surprising that New Zealand First has risen since the last poll, given that in the interim, the party’s fundraising vehicle, the New Zealand First Foundation, faces serious charges of office fraud.

But Winston Peters has been storming Auckland’s malls and getting more news coverage than he deserves.

And it’s less surprising that the Greens fall.

The focal point of his campaign appears to be getting cannabis activist Chloe Swarbrick elected in Auckland Central, where the party ranks third in all polls.

Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of the poll is that National seems hardly indifferent to the events of the past week in which a letter from an MP complaining about Collins’ leadership was leaked.

The real question is whether 32 percent have bottomed out for National or whether some of those who have been giving Judith Collins a chance to increase the party’s fortunes during the campaign will now evacuate as reality draws closer.

That could be good news for New Zealand First.