- There could be six different types of COVID-19, according to a study by King’s College London in the United Kingdom.
- Each type could be distinguished by its own group of symptoms, the researchers say.
- The first symptoms can help predict how bad someone gets.
Symptoms experienced in the first few days of a COVID-19 infection could help predict the course of the patient’s illness.
That is one of the initial conclusions of a team of researchers from King’s College London in the United Kingdom. Their research has identified six possible subdivisions of COVID-19, using machine learning to analyze data from a symptom tracking app.
These findings, from a preprinted document not yet peer-reviewed, reflect how thinking about the disease is evolving and how technologies are being harnessed to combat the disease.
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic requires global cooperation between governments, international organizations and the business community, which is at the center of the mission of the World Economic Forum as the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation.
Since launching on March 11, the Forum’s COVID Platform for Action has brought together 1,667 stakeholders from 1,106 companies and organizations to mitigate the risk and impact of the unprecedented global health emergency that is COVID-19.
The platform was created with the support of the World Health Organization and is open to all companies and industry groups, as well as other interested parties, with the aim of integrating and informing the joint action.
As an organization, the Forum has a history of supporting efforts to contain epidemics. In 2017, at our Annual Meeting, the Coalition for Outbreak Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) was launched, bringing together experts from government, business, healthcare, academia and civil society to accelerate vaccine development. CEPI is currently supporting the race to develop a vaccine against this coronavirus chain.
Most people can name a few key symptoms of COVID-19, thanks to media reports or, unfortunately, personal experience. The best-known symptoms include fever, shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle aches, headaches, and the infamous persistent cough.
As more is learned about the disease, the list of symptoms has grown. The loss of sense of taste and smell (ageusia and anosmia, respectively) was detected anecdotally before being accepted by medical organizations around the world.
The percentage of confirmed coronavirus cases reporting olfactory dysfunction.
Image: Evidence-Based Medicine Center
The King’s College team recently analyzed data from around 1,600 people with confirmed COVID-19 infections in the United Kingdom and the United States. Each had registered symptoms using an app during March and April. We also examined a second dataset of around 1,000 app users from the United Kingdom, the United States and Sweden who had recorded their symptoms during May.
The researchers say they have been able to group the symptoms into six divisions, which they say could indicate how badly a patient can be.
Its six suggested groups are:
1. Flu without fever: Headache, loss of smell, muscle aches, cough, sore throat, chest pain, no fever.
2. Flu with fever: Headache, loss of smell, cough, sore throat, hoarseness, fever, loss of appetite.
3. Gastrointestinal: Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, diarrhea, sore throat, chest pain, no cough.
4. Severe level one, fatigue: Headache, loss of smell, cough, fever, hoarseness, chest pain, fatigue.
5. Severe level two, confusion: Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness, sore throat, chest pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain.
6. Severe level three, abdominal and respiratory: Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness, sore throat, chest pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain, shortness of breath, diarrhea, abdominal pain.
The six categories represent a spectrum of respiratory difficulties. Understanding this range could help with clinical management and match patients with adequate care effectively and efficiently.
Analyzing the information provided by the patient about the symptoms and their results, the research team says that while 16% of the patients in Group 1 were admitted to the hospital, almost half of those in Group 6 were.
They also found that patients in 4, 5, and 6 tended to be older, and more likely to have pre-existing conditions ranging from diabetes to obesity.
The specific combination of symptoms reported by a patient was found to be a potential indicator of whether they would become seriously ill.
While more research needs to be done, the paper underscores the importance of institutions around the world contributing to COVID-19’s broader set of global knowledge.
The coronavirus crisis has sparked a variety of global collaborations, including the World Economic Forum’s COVID Platform for Action. So far, more than 350 public agencies and more than 850 private organizations around the world have joined the Platform, collaborating on 35 projects ranging from healthcare and vaccines to supply chains and financial support.
Research also demonstrates the power of new technologies to aid medical research. Sebastien Ourselin, professor of health engineering at King’s College London and lead author of the study: “Being able to collect large data sets through the app and apply machine learning to them is having a profound impact on our understanding of the scope and impact of COVID-19, and human health more broadly. ”
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