The Republican National Convention may have ended with a literal bang – fireworks – the spelling of “Trump 2020” occurred last Thursday, but according to a new post-convention ABC News-Ipsos poll, President Donald Trump is not attending the convention much. Bounce – At least when it comes to its approval rating.
Historically, presidential candidates look significant, although their party does increase the turnout after their conventions. For example, in 201, Gallup was given a G.O.P. The convention saw Trump’s approval rating rise by about a percentage point.
This year, however, Ipsos Polster found Trump’s overall approval rating to be essentially the same, as it was ahead of the GOP session, down 1 percentage point from the previous week to 31 percent.
In a poll held between August 28 and 29, the American people also did not win the convention’s message, with 59 percent of Americans rejecting the content of the RNC’s four-night programming, while 37 percent approved. Overall, 48 percent of Americans reported watching, slightly less than the percent of those who said they attended the Democratic National Convention weeks ago.
Trump has not enjoyed particularly high favorable ratings during his presidency (although he has maintained strong Republican support). Nonetheless, their numbers have remained largely durable – and this most recent number, while slightly lower than the average pioneered by Fifty Eight, shows stability. Trump’s favorable rating – aside from a full cipher for real support in any way – is probably the biggest concern for the president as his vote deficit against Democratic nominee B Biden has stabilized at a five-thirty national poll average in recent weeks.
Since August 22 August, the Saturday following the DNC, since Saturday, August 29, RNC, Biden’s lead has barely changed, rising from 8.8 percentage points to 8.6 percent. Voters are still collecting data to determine whether voters have changed their voting choices – but that gap is a reminder of how beneficial it is for his campaign in terms of who intends to bounce in a post-convention ballot.
Can a virtual convention still bounce?
As Fifty Eight’s J. Free Scale pointed out in early July this year, there are plenty of questions about whether the importance of convention bounces is diminishing as American voters become increasingly polarized. This year’s virtual conventions – many of the general pageantry absent seen in the general presidential year – were also able to wet up some of the factors behind the boom of the past.
But, given the approval, the “no bounce” theory is not necessary for Biden with what the ABC News-Ipsos poll shows. While Trump’s convenience is slipping, Biden has steadily climbed in August. The former vice president is now 46 percent, according to ABC News and Ipsos, with BC 46 percent rejection.
Sen., a senior Vice Presidential candidate for democracy. Kamala Harris had a better 35 per cent gain in her performance while she was voted Biden’s VP in the latest poll from 1 to 4 per cent to 43 per cent. The election was announced.
And while Biden increased his favor among Democrats by a percentage point, according to ABC’s Kendall Carson, Trump’s favor with Republicans fell by a percentage point after the convention.
Trump’s surge of alternative-reality
If one way or another of Sunday-morning retweets is to go, however, Trump believes in bounces – and ABC / Ipsos is the outlet in the results. The president spearheaded more than twenty tweets and analyzes from the right-wing Twitter account @Polwatch 2020, including polls Democratic institution And Trafalgar group Showing him a winner at the national level and in key swing states.
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of this number, though: the Trafalgar Group gets C- and Gas in FiveTreeT’s poster ratings, and the Democracy Institute is not even listed.
Worryingly, the numbers from both groups outweigh the rest – in Michigan, for example, Biden has an average lead of 7.1 percent, including the Trafalgar poll that shows Trump winning. In fact, Trafalgar has only five to thirty valid votes this month, so Trump can win from any distance in the state.
This is not the first time Trump has denied the reality presented by distinguished voters: in June, CNN was slammed by his campaign. After sending a letter of defense and opposition to, a poll was published by the network showing Trump losing to Biden; CNN dismissed the complaint as “factually and legally unfounded” and said it did not want voters to read or listen to another “bad faith attempt” by the campaign to threaten an objectionable lawsuit.
But trying to quote a poll that doesn’t look good for your campaign isn’t a great re-acquisition strategy, especially when most of the polls are in constant agreement. In major swing states like Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Biden still maintains a lead, which is reflected in the national poll.
Voting is, as Lee Zhou of Vox noted, a portrait of a moment of time. But with less than 70 days until the election, Trump has limited time to change public opinion if he wants to serve a second term.
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