The no. 1-seeders in both conferences each lost their first game of the NBA playoffs for the first time since 2003, back when LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony were still NBA draft prospects and not grizzled veterans.
One half of that dynamic duo goes home early this season. Will it be LeBron and the top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers? And could the Milwaukee Bucks be heading for an equally shocking first-round finish?
We asked our experts – who would NO overreacting to one game – to play a bit of NBA postseason fact as fiction in Thursday’s quadruple header on ESPN (starting 1 pm ET).
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Paul Pierce does not want to hear rumors that LeBron James is the greatest of all time if the Lakers cannot make it out of the first round.
Fact or Fiction: The Lakers are in trouble.
Nick Friedell: Fact. The Lakers’ offense can’t find a rhythm and Damian Lillard is absolutely on fire. Even if the Lakers can get through the Portland Trail Blazers, they haven’t looked at a title game at all since they got into the bubble. They look like a team that has a top-heavy roster and is too reliable on James and Anthony Davis to carry them for long stretches. If the standard is a championship, I do not know how Lakers fans could be confident at this point.
Kevin Pelton: More fiction than fact. It’s certainly not good that their offensive malaise of the seeding games transferred to Game 1 of the playoffs, but as Jared Dubin remarked on Twitter, the Lakers are still get the same quality photos as the regular season – they just do not go in. At some point I think it will probably change.
Other Snellings: Fact. I chose the Trail Blazers to defeat the Lakers before the series started, and Game 1 imagined why. James and Davis are players of the world, but it is not clear that the Lakers have scored enough in their supporting cast to keep up. The Lakers’ biggest advantage against most teams, in addition to their powerful leaders, is great. But with Jusuf Nurkic playing healthy and at a high level, the Trail Blazers can compete in the paint, while Lillard and CJ McCollum dominate the perimeter. This is just a tough matchup.
Eric Woodyard: Fiction. I get it. The Lakers looked extremely mediocre in Game 1, but sometimes it takes an alarm clock to really poke the bear. That will be the case with LeBron & Co. forward. I thought LeBron could have been more offensive in the stretch instead of facilitating so much, but he will reverse it. The Lakers have depth issues and the Blazers are not fluke, but I can not see LA falling in this series.
Royce Young: Fact. There are real causes for concern about the way the Lakers have played in the bubble. Their shortcomings are not something new, but they have become more pronounced. They may not fall into the hands of the Trail Blazers, but the Lakers are no longer the title favorite. And with Lillard breathing down her neck, they do not have much time to figure it out.
2. Fact or fiction: The goats are in trouble.
Pelton: Fiction. I’m less worried about Milwaukee’s opening loss, which does less to reinforce existing concerns about the Bucks. They struggled during seeded games, but that was mostly about sitting key players with nothing on the line.
Accelerations: Fiction. The Bucks need to find their level after playing essentially through the play-in games. Unlike the Lakers, though, they would be able to handle their opponent without much difficulty, giving them more time and cushion to find themselves before the situation becomes critical. Once they rediscover their team chemistry, they are still overwhelming favorites to move forward.
Woodyard: Fiction. I would be lying if I said there were no worries, but I’m not ready to say that the Bucks are still just in trouble. Game 1 cemented some of the recent problems with the Bucks: lack of focus at times, inability to defend the 3 as teams get hot and step into a different gear. If there is one thing I have learned about Giannis Antetokounmpo from his surroundings, it is that he does not lose light. He can lead his team to victory, if necessary.
Young: Fiction. The Bucks ‘releases are crying out for malaise and motivation more than their Western counterparts’. The Magic could follow suit, but like many Eastern favorites in recent memory, that sometimes seems to happen. The Bucks have not shown the same cutting edge in the bubble they had before the season ended in March, but their problems are much more solvable.
Friedell: Fact. The Bucks would eventually be able to steer through an undermined Magic squad that played great in Game 1, but they have not looked good since they went into the bubble. Who will consistently help Antetokounmpo when teams load up on him? What will he do if teams get away from him and force him to shoot? The Heat’s long and athletic roster would hold the opportunity to slow down the Bucks. And if Milwaukee passes Miami, it would have to beat the winner of the Toronto / Boston series before reaching the final. Good luck.
Fact or fiction: Damian Lillard is currently the best player in the NBA.
Woodyard: Fact. Lady Time is in full effect in the bubble. He’s not here to play games and the NBA is on full notice. He’s in his bag! From running deep treys to representing his hometown Oakland with a dance to Too Short’s “Blow the Whistle” after he ignored a Clutch 3. What he is doing right now is truly legendary. There is no denying that he is the toughest man in the league. Although I still consider LeBron to be the best overall talent.
Accelerations: Faction. Giannis, LeBron and James Harden are the three players with the most influence on the game, measured by real plus-minus, but the Trail Blazers do not need Lillard to carry as large a load as that trio. The Trail Blazers need Lillard very specifically to do exactly where he’s best: make attacks in robust ways that the opponent cannot defend. Hy is one of the best in the league at that, which makes Portland incredibly dangerous.
Young: Fiction. “At the moment” leaves some room for interpretation, and although Lillard is often the most dominant, or most enthusiastic, or most compelling, or most exciting, or valuable, it does not necessarily make him the best directed. Because what Dame does is not really that new. If he was not your best player in the NBA in January when he did this nicely, then he is not now.
Friedell: Fact. There is no one I would rather have on my team at the moment. He has carried the Blazers and given the group the confidence it needs to get both into the playoffs and defeat the Lakers. It would be very interesting to see a healthy Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant in the bubble, but without them on the floor, Lillard is the King of the Bubble.
Pelton: Fiction. No one has delivered more value in the bubble than Lillard, deservedly named Player of the Seed Games, but that’s not the same thing as being the best player in the NBA.
4. Miami than Houston: Which team is on a better path in the NBA Finals?
Woodyard: Miami. Both paths will be easy, as both teams in the next round the no. 1 seed could play, but the Heat have had regular success against the Bucks. That should give them the confidence they can win on any given night. So, I will reform the question above and say that its path is more realistic.
Young: Houston has an open door. Either way, the Heat will see Giannis and the Bucks in the way, but the Rockets may start dreaming about avoiding LeBron and the Lakers. And what encourages the Rockets even more is that they are waiting for a return from one of the top 10 or 15 best players in the world, too.
Friedell: Miami. I would be surprised if one of these teams makes it to the finals this year, but Miami does not have a strong LA Clippers team in its way. I believe the Clippers and Toronto Raptors will eventually meet for the bubble title – I’ve thought all year that the Clippers were just a cut above everyone else – but Jimmy Butler is motivated, that Heat group is healthy, and they would ‘I have to watch the Clippers until the final.
Pelton: Houston. Playing without Russell Westbrook, the Rockets got exactly the kind of game they needed 12 times to get there: Harden’s dominant performances and strong contributions from their role players.
Accelerations: The Rockets are on a better path to the NBA Finals because they have the power of the puncher to win the whole thing. Their primary strength, of course, is the Harden-led Mike D’Antoni system, where they maximize the highest efficiencies in a way that teams really cannot fully defend. However, when Westbrook returns, he will give her a different look with his downhill style that benefits from all the space created by the shooters. At their best, they can beat any team.
5. What is your bold prediction for Thursday’s games?
Friedell: James Harden will set up a 50 burger. He will likely throw several in the bubble playoffs, but without Russell Westbrook, he knows he needs to do more offensively and will face the challenge.
Accelerations: I predicted that three of the four series after Thursday would be 2-0, with at least one of the top teams losing again.
Young: Milwaukee covers, and then some. Currently, the Bucks are a 13-point favorite. The Magic have their attention now – if at least should – and if the Bucks are truly a title contender, this is where they make their statement and win by 20 points.
Pelton: Rajon Rondo returns for the Lakers and hands out bilingual assists.
Woodyard: The Pacers may be the underdogs, but you can not just count them. I expect a great bounce-back game from TJ Warren, with at least 35 points. Tuesday was his first playoff experience and now he knows what to expect.
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