Thursday is the NBA’s biggest day to restart as we reach the conclusion of the red-hot Western Conference play-in battle.
The Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns will all be in action, and only two will advance on Saturday.
We asked our experts to go 5-on-5 to debate the best moments of the NBA bubble, their biggest takeaways to date, and their predictions for the winning play-in – the team that will move forward to the Los Angeles Lakers.
MORE: Western play scenarios for all four teams
1. Restart your favorite NBA favorite moment?
Tim MacMahon: Damian Lillard on Tuesday launched the clutch 3 against the 33-foot Mavericks, according to the official play-by-play – and the unofficial jump that high from the back edge, or so it did, before splashing through it. It was the signing moment of a 61-point performance by the Trail Blazers star that rightly demanded that everyone put some bleepin ‘respect on his name.
Tim Bontemps: Everything Damian Lillard has done, including his scores 51 and 61 the past two games – after missing a few important free throws late in a loss to the Clippers – to drag Portland to the bottom of the playoffs. With feats like that, I have felt grateful to have the opportunity to see games in person after everything that has taken place in the world in recent months.
Dave McMenamin: I have also been fortunate to be in the building for the defining moments for the two bubble MVPs: Devin Booker’s one-handed fadeaway winner over the Clippers who rendered both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard’s defensive work useless and Lillard’s back-rim bouncer those it gave him 61 and helped secure a must-win game against Dallas.
Other Snellings: The Rockets-Bucks game. David vs. Goliath. Small ball against a team starting two 7-a-side players. The game was electric, with the past three NBA MVPs. The Rockets shot below 40%, gave up 110 points and were outscored by 29 – and won (the first team in NBA history to do so). Plus, Brook Lopez announced that he was waiting for Russell Westbrook. Just fun all around.
Kevin Pelton: The stretch run of Dallas-Portland, which felt a lot like a playoff game unlike the other matchups this week, where at least one team did not have much motivation to win. Both teams had something on the line, their stars (especially Lillard) shone and the outcome had dramatic play-in ramifications.
2. Your thoughts on the last four teams participating in the West play-in?
Pelton: Even if the Suns, currently 7-0 in the bubble, do not make the play-in, this month has been very favorable for their future. After years of flailing, they have found their star in Devin Booker, a number of quality role players around him, and have built a culture of defense and accountability that is previously lacking.
Bontemps: Phoenix and San Antonio justified their inclusion here more. Both have seen young players step up and make great plays to win games, including Mikal Bridges for Phoenix and Derrick White for San Antonio. Although both teams are unlikely to make the play-in game, they should be excited about what they have gained from their time in Florida, regardless of how Thursday plays out.
McMenamin: Cameron Payne has been a legitimate contender for Phoenix since he was signed shortly before the resumption. He averages 10.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game for the undefeated Suns while shooting 50% of 3. One pet peeve is how internet culture can turn players into cartoon characters, and I’m glad Payne’s his way out.
MacMahon: Nothing in the bubble has gone the way of Grizzlies, from injuries to key players (Jaren Jackson Jr., Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones) until their growing pain is visible to all. Even if Memphis falls completely out of the play-in scenario on Thursday, Grizzlies fans should feel great about this season and the future of the franchise. They have one of the most gifted youngsters in the league, and those guys have participated, even as the loss piled up and the pressure mounted in the bubble.
Accelerations: The Blazers are the team that does not really belong in this group. With Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins playing well and Carmelo Anthony playing well, they are closer in caliber to the West finalists they were last season, as opposed to a team still struggling to come in.
Fact or fiction: The play-in must be here to stay.
Accelerations: Fact. It would be more incentive for teams to fight to position for the entire season and more potential excitement at the end of the regular season. However, I would like to see the criteria adjusted, to require both teams to be above .500 and within three games of each other.
McMenamin: Fiction. While I’m completely on board with the NBA introducing it to Orlando, considering that the regular season was compromised by COVID-19, an uninterrupted margin of 82 games is not enough to ensure the top eight teams in each conference entry?
Bontemps: Fact. I find it a great wrinkle. We all saw how exciting the Nuggets-Timberwolves game was a few years ago. And these past two weeks have been dramatically improved by having it. I also think that defining the maximum gap between the 8-seed and 9-seed – preventing the play-in from happening in the East – has also worked well.
MacMahon: I’m loud on the idea. It worked here because the schedule had to be shortened due to unusual circumstances. I would encourage the league to look at ways to avoid late-season refueling by playoff teams in hopes of avoiding or dictating matchups. (Exhibit A: The Utah Jazz in the Bubble.) How could the higher seed choose its enemy from the available pool?
Pelton: Fact. I do not know what the best format is, but keeping these many teams engaged in the playoff race instead of looking forward to next season is a net positive in my book.
4. Your biggest takeaway from the boiling games and the Orlando bubble to date?
MacMahon: Give the NBA a round of applause. The bubble concept has been implemented to perfection, with zero positive COVID-19 tests on the Walt Disney World campus. The games, for the most part, have been entertaining and competitive. And the messages from players, coaches and leagues regarding racial injustice have been consistently on point.
Bontemps: I am impressed by the sharpness of the scene and surprised by the level of intensity and competition across the board. Even the teams with a bit to gain from playing hard in these games have done so for the most part. It’s made for great competition and really fun, close and exciting games (except teams that rested boys for the playoffs the last few days).
Pelton: For all the other factors at play – overbearing referees, the shooting background, rust – the offensive results we’ve seen so far tell me that there can be no way to consistently stop crimes that are so floor can make with their shots. (Although, if one exists, the Toronto Raptors seem the closest to finding it.)
Accelerations: Clearly, teams care less about seeding than usual, which is intelligent due to the lack of home-court advantage in the postseason. Teams rest their star players even in cases where seeding may still be on the line.
McMenamin: There was financial motivation to record a seeding round, but it should also benefit from the basketball we see in the postseason. It has allowed coaches to see what they need to work with, and created opportunities for young boys like Michael Porter Jr. and Languages Horton-Tucker who might get much shorter minutes if the NBA went straight to the playoffs.
5. What do you look like most when you approach the playoffs?
Accelerations: Can the Blazers earn that final playoff spot and a matchup with the Lakers? Lillard plays at Megatron levels, his team is experienced and the Lakers cannot rely on home run advantage. It forms a scintillating scenario, a potentially classic first-round matchup.
Bontemps: My question is if LeBron James and the Lakers have enough to get through the gaustlet in the West – potentially Portland, Houston and the Clippers. Will the supporting cast look better in the playoffs? How will Anthony Davis handle the biggest pressure of his NBA career? The shaky performance of the Lakers in Florida ensures that they will remain fascinating.
Pelton: I would not say I am worries about James’ play in the boiling games with not much at stake, but how quickly he returns to the level we saw in the regular season – especially near the end of the game – is what I will see the closest forward.
MacMahon: Does LeBron look completely healthy? It may seem silly to nitpick his performance of 29 points, 12 assists in the win over the Nuggets, but James who grabs only one rebound in a game raises eyebrows. Regardless of how the Lakers looked in the boiling games, I consider them to be the favorites as James is healthy. But if he does not? Um, Lillard’s Trail Blazers would be a really dangerous first round matchup.
McMenamin: How long will it take for the Lakers and Bucks to get it together? Or will they, even? Back in March, they seemed like heavy favorites to meet in the final. Would you say that now? The Clippers and Rockets both look like formidable challenges for the Lakers to get past – man, even from the first round doesn’t seem automatic for LA – and Toronto and Boston have both looked better so far than the Bucks.
Predictions: Which teams will make the play-offs, and who will win?
MacMahon: Portland (8-seed) vs. Phoenix (9-seed). With all due respect to Phoenix’s phenomenal Cinderella story – and I agree with Suns star Devin Booker that this success could pay dividends for the franchise in the very future – there’s no way I’ll bet against the Blazers to grab the final playoff of the West seed. Lillard is too shaken to believe the Blazers will lose, at least until they face the Lakers in the playoffs.
Accelerations: Portland (8) vs. Memphis (9), with the Trail Blazers in one win. The Suns have a difficult final game and need help to get in, while Memphis only need to beat a Bucks team with nothing to play for that has already started to rest from its starters, and Giannis Antetokounmpo will be out due to suspension. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are just as good at the moment.
McMenamin: Portland (8) vs. Phoenix (9). The Suns run their winning streak to nine before the Blazers beat them in the second game of the playoffs.
Pelton: Portland (8) vs. Phoenix (9), with the Blazers ending the Suns’ winning streak.
Bontemps: Portland (8) vs. Memphis (9), with Portland winning 15 on Saturday to advance to the Lakers.
MORE: NBA Schedule – Four enormous games on Thursday
.
