After Friday’s launch of the new NBA 2020 calendar, it’s time to look forward to the games, players, and teams that will be most appealing when the season resumes on July 30 at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, Florida.
Which playoff races are most important, which teams are the must-see, and who are the new favorite titles?
Our experts answer big questions and make predictions after the timeline is presented and what will happen inside the bubble.
PLUS: NBA 2020 restart key dates – playoffs, draft and free agency schedule
1. What is a game that you would mark on the calendar?
Kevin Pelton: Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans on August 3, the biggest swing game of the showdown career. Based on my simulations of the seed games, New Orleans is the team with the best chance of moving to Memphis for eighth place, and doing so will surely require winning this game. (Also, you know, Zion vs. Ja.)
Royce Young: Definitely the LA Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers on “opening night”. It’s a main showdown with megastars, combined with curiosity about how the reboot will look and feel. It will be an unmissable game on the scale of a playoff matchup.
Eric Woodyard: Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers on July 31. Ja Morant vs. Damian Lillard will give us a fun base showdown with a rising star and one of the game’s great manipulators. With both teams competing to secure the final playoff spot in the West, the first qualifying game for each is very important.
Ramona Shelburne: I almost want to throw away all the games from the first week, just on principle. It’s likely to be quite uneven after such a long layoff, and I know teams will want to step up carefully to avoid injury. But I can’t see any of the teams taking it easy in that Lakers-Clippers game on July 30. Not after all the talk that has taken place, throughout the season, involving the Western Conference favorites.
Andre Snellings: I want to see the Blazers play against the Grizzlies. Behind the Grizzlies for eighth place and their favorite Rookie of the Year Morant, the Trail Blazers are extremely dangerous as the next team to come out. Portland has been the third seed in consecutive postseasons, was a finalist in the Western Conference last season and should be given a boost when big men Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins return from injury. That matchup could easily be a preview of the play-in tournament, should have playoff intensity and features two of the NBA’s most exciting point guards.
PLUS: Current NBA Ranking
2. Which Western planting race will you observe most closely?
Young: Is it possible that the Mavericks will collide with the Houston Rockets in a conference quarterfinal matchup with the Clippers? They’re tied for the win column at 40, but the Mavs have three more losses than the Rockets. Houston’s small ball approach would benefit from attracting the Denver Nuggets in the conference quarterfinals rather than the versatile Clippers.
Woodyard: The eighth seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Kings will be looking for the last place in the playoffs, but I like that the Trail Blazers return to the postseason. Collins and Nurkic’s return to health may be just what Portland needs. Damian Lillard should be especially motivated after proclaiming that he wanted the opportunity to play meaningful games.
Shelburne: The Rockets were basically tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for fifth place in the West, but just 2½ games from Denver for third place. The advantage of playing at home does not mean anything now, but I am sure they would like to enter a good streak and move up the rankings.
Snellings: I’m looking at the 2-seed race, because it puts a team in pole position to reach the conference final without having to deal with the Lakers. The Clippers are currently at that location, but there are four teams within four games of them. The seeding of those five teams shapes key playoff matchups to determine who would likely face the Lakers in the West final.
Pelton: Who ends up trapped in seventh place, which probably means facing the Clippers in the conference quarterfinals. The Clippers’ drop in talent to any team that finishes third will likely be considerable, making it the place no one wants. And although the Dallas Mavericks are currently located there, they are up from seventh in more than half of my simulations.
3. Which eastern planting race will you watch most closely?
Woodyard: I am interested to see who can insure the second seed. If it’s Boston, with Kemba Walker stabilizing the team and four players who can get their own shot, then I think the Celtics look set to return to the conference finals.
Shelburne: I’m sure the Heat would love to come out of the No. 4 spot to avoid a second-round showdown with the Bucks. It’s 2½ games behind the Celtics, a real challenge for just a stretch of eight games, especially with the tough schedule that Miami has been given.
Snellings: I’m watching seed race 4-6, where the Heat, Pacers, and 76ers are two games apart. Being the 6-seed means a team avoids a possible Bucks showdown until the end of the East. Without the factorless home court advantage, the Sixers in particular are a threat to making a serious playoff career if they are healthy.
Pelton: Not so much where the Philadelphia 76ers are sown as who they face in the conference quarterfinals. It is not unequivocally clear that the Sixers are better moving from sixth to fifth if that means facing the Miami Heat, against whom they are 1-3 this season, instead of the Boston Celtics, a season series that they won 3-1.
Young: Seeing how the 76ers approach the calendar now that they don’t have to consider the advantage of playing at home will be interesting, as they are currently tied with the Pacers for No. 5 in the East. Should Philly try to get to No. 6 to avoid a possible conference semifinal matchup with the Bucks? Or will the Sixers focus on finding their best form of basketball before the postseason?
4. What team chances will get the most momentum from the break and the new schedule?
Shelburne: I’m probably meant to be the last person left on Sixers Island. But they are very talented, I think they will be dangerous on a neutral court with no expectations now. A healthy Ben Simmons also helps a lot. I suppose I could make the same argument for the Clippers, who now have healthy Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and one of the league’s deepest teams.
Snellings: The Rockets get the biggest boost from the break because their team is uniquely built. They have a powerful backcourt at Harden and Westbrook, but due to a lack of big men, their forwards were being defeated with the amount of effort required to play their style. The pause should have allowed them to feel fresh again, and the short hours allow them to come back up in time for the playoffs. And Harden tends to be used for the postseason; You have had the opportunity not only to rest but also to be in excellent shape during the summer.
Pelton: Dallas As I mentioned earlier, the Mavericks have a reasonable chance of moving up from seventh place, and are no longer affected by being out of the race for the advantage of playing at home in the conference quarterfinals. That means the team with the West’s third-best point differential this season is a terrifying first-round opponent.
Young: The 76ers are a logical choice, considering that Ben Simmons had a chance to bounce back and that they no longer have to play real games on the road (they were 10-24 on the road this season). However, the layoff probably didn’t fix his inconsistencies, so I’m going with the obvious: LeBron James has just had a three-month break and has a maximum of 28 playoff games between himself and another title.
Woodyard: The Trail Blazers. They were plagued with injuries before the season stopped, but Collins and Nurkic’s return should be huge. We already know what we’re going to get from Lillard and CJ McCollum, but if the supporting cast can brush off the rust and click right away, this team will be scary.
5. Which team was your title choice before the break, and have you changed your mind?
Snellings: The Bucks were my choice as the clear favorite in the East, but the glove in the West is more difficult. I still favor the Bucks, but the pause has helped their opponents more than it has helped Milwaukee. The Bucks are deep and their best players weren’t required to play big minutes, while each of the Lakers, Clippers, Rockets and 76ers had a chance to improve their health and close the gap. But the Bucks remain dominant on both ends of the floor and have the best chance of taking the title home if they play to their fullest potential.
Pelton: The Clippers would change my choice if Lou Williams decides not to participate in the restart. Otherwise, I think their combination of depth and stellar talent should work well in this environment, and the Clippers no longer have to deal with the potential of having more Lakers fans than Clippers fans at the Staples Center during games. Nominals at home if the teams meet at the conference finals.
Young: It has reinforced my confidence in the Clippers. Maybe the Clippers will step back on the chemistry on the court, trying to work out his impressive depth, but they have had three months to get Paul George back completely healthy and let Kawhi Leonard rest. It is impossible to anticipate how much the new environment will alter the outcome, but the depth of LA should be an advantage. And in a possible West Final matchup with the Lakers, the Clippers would have had a series with seven de facto road games. They are now on a neutral court.
Woodyard: Before the parenthesis, I chose the Clippers. Now, I’m in the Lakers to win their 17th title. They were clicking so perfectly before the season ended, and LeBron James appears to be on a mission to get back on the field with his window for a championship slowly dwindling.
Shelburne: I chose the Lakers to start the year and I keep that. But I feel that Toronto has a great opportunity in the East now. Defending champion Raptors have that playoff experience, are well-trained, and need to be healthy after the long break.
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