‘Nationalism of the vaccine’: is each country by itself?

LONDON / CHICAGO (Reuters) – It is a dog-eating dog in the world of COVID-19 vaccines.

That’s the fear that global health agencies will plan a scheme to buy in bulk and distribute vaccines equitably around the world. They watch with dismay how some wealthier countries have decided to go it alone, striking deals with drug makers to secure millions of doses of promising candidates for their citizens.

The agreements, including those agreed by the United States, Great Britain and the European Union with people like Pfizer (PFE.N), BioNtech (22UAy.F), AstraZeneca (AZN.L) and Modern (MRNA.O) – they are sapping global momentum, experts say.

“Everyone making bilateral deals is not a way to optimize the situation,” said Seth Berkley, executive director of the GAVI alliance that co-leads the scheme called COVAX, designed to ensure rapid and fair global access to COVID-19 vaccines.

Pfizer said this week that it was in simultaneous talks with the EU and several of its member states to supply them with their potential vaccine.

And in the latest coup, Britain announced an agreement Wednesday to secure advanced supplies of potential GlaxoSmithKline COVID-19 vaccines (GSK.L) and Sanofi (SASY.PA)

This, according to the world health charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), will further fuel “the global fight to accumulate vaccines by rich countries” and fuel “a dangerous trend of vaccine nationalism.”

The concern is that the supply and allocation of vaccines in this pandemic will echo the latest one, caused by the H1N1 influenza virus in 2009/2010, when wealthy nations purchased the available supply of vaccines, initially leaving countries poor without any.

In that case, since H1N1 turned out to be a milder disease and the pandemic finally faded, the impact on infections and deaths from vaccine imbalances was limited.

However, COVID-19 is a much bigger threat, and leaving vulnerable sectors of the world’s people will not only harm them, but will also spread the pandemic and the damage it can cause, health experts say.

“There is a risk that some countries are doing exactly what we feared, which is each one for itself,” said Gayle Smith, former head of the United States Agency for International Development and CEO of One Campaign, an organization without for-profit aimed at ending poverty and preventable diseases.

‘I’M WORRIED’

More than 75 wealthier countries, including Britain, have expressed interest in the COVAX funding scheme, which is also co-chaired by the World Health Organization and the Coalition for Epidemic Readiness Innovations, or CEPI, joining the 90 poorer who would receive support through donations.

But the United States, China and Russia are not among the countries expressing interest in COVAX, according to GAVI.

And an EU source said last week that the European Commission, which is the bloc’s executive arm and leading the EU talks with drug makers, has advised EU countries not to buy COVID-19 vaccines. through COVAX.

“I am concerned,” said Thomas Bollyky, director of the Council on Foreign Relations’ global health program. “What is happening to the handful of nations that are blocking the supply of vaccines competes with multilateral supply agreements.

“At the end of the day, vaccine manufacturing is a finite resource. You can expand it, but only a little bit. ”

Experts estimate that the world can reasonably expect to have around 2 billion doses of effective COVID-19 vaccines by the end of next year, if several of the top candidates prove to be effective in accelerated late-stage trials currently underway. COVAX’s objective is to distribute doses to at least 20% of the populations in its registered countries.

ANOTHER TWO YEARS?

GAVI’s Berkley said, however, that if self-interested countries or regions came together to cover their entire populations, rather than share them among nations and protect those most at risk first, the pandemic could not be controlled.

“If you tried to vaccinate the entire United States (and) the entire EU, for example, with two doses of vaccine, then you would get approximately 1.7 billion doses. And if that’s the amount of dose available, there’s not much left for others. ”

If a handful, or even 30 or 40 countries have vaccines, but more than 150 others do not, “then the epidemic will break out there,” Berkley said.

“This virus … moves like lightning. Therefore, you will end up in a situation where you will not be able to return to normal. You cannot have trade, tourism, travel, trade, unless you can reduce the pandemic. ”

He, Smith, and other health experts said that ending the pandemic meant ending everyone.

“It is the difference of a pandemic (for) another two years instead of one year,” added Smith. “The economic and health consequences are enormous.”