Government troops are taking up positions outside a port in the far north of Mozambique, which was captured last week by Islamist extremists in the latest escalation of the uprising in the South African country.
Hundreds of reinforcements have been positioned around the port in the city of Mocímboa da Praia.
The facility, which is near the site of natural gas projects worth about $ 60 billion (£ 45 billion), collapsed on Tuesday when marines who had resisted several hundred militants ran out of ammunition and were forced to withdraw.
Mozambican Defense Minister Jaime Neto said last week that the extremists had infiltrated parts of Mocímboa da Praia and then “attacked the inner city from within, causing destruction, looting and the killing of defensive civilians,” according to a report by ‘ the local news agency Zitamar.
The attack was the latest in a series launched on the city by a group known as Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamaa, which was loyal to Islamic State last year. The extremist operation took place over several days, with early attacks closing roads leading to the city by eliminating government defensive posts, before a definitive attack.
“This included the largest concentration of insurgents we have ever seen, was alleged and was clearly planned for a while. It is a success and a embarrassment for the government, but they are currently extremely vulnerable, “said Jasmine Opperman, a South African analyst who has been following the intense conflict in northern Mozambique.
The government has suffered a series of setbacks in its efforts to roll back the progress of the extremists.
A force led by Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamaa briefly occupied the center of Mocímboa da Praia in March, burning government facilities, including a barracks and burning banners of attack on Isis.
The militants raided a second city and ransacked the district police headquarters. They also carried an Isis flag.
Other raids have met with limited resistance. As many as 55 government soldiers, especially recent recruits transported in open trucks, died last week in a well-prepared ambush on an access road to Mocímboa da Praia as authorities sought to strengthen the garrison in the city.
Local security forces suffer from poor training, minimal equipment and low morale. Recent attempts to reinforce them with expensive foreign mercenaries do not seem to have been effective.
At least 150 Russians affiliated with the Wagner Group, a company that has supplied monsters to fight in various African countries, were deployed last year but were forced to retreat after suffering major casualties.
Dyck Advisory Group, a South African-based private security company currently deployed in northern Mozambique, is also struggling to make a significant impact. The handful of light helicopters were too far from Mocímboa da Praia based to intervene effectively.
The uprising in the far north of Mozambique erupted in 2017, rapidly evolving into one of the region’s most serious security challenges.
Observers are increasingly comparing the situation to the early stages of insurgencies in Nigeria, Mali and elsewhere in Africa. These have grown strongly in recent decades, with repeated efforts by local, regional and international powers to curb their proliferation and achieve at least limited success.
The conflict in Mozambique is rooted in widespread anger over the central government’s failure to freely distribute profits from the exploitation of the region’s rich natural resources, as well as a range of historic grievances. Dissatisfaction has been heightened by endemic corruption, expropriations to clear land for international companies to invest in the gas project and an indecent military response to the violence. Muslims make up about 18% of the overwhelmingly Christian country.
The insurgents have so far killed at least 900 civilians, including several hundred government soldiers and police. However, the true death toll is extremely difficult to establish, observers say.
‘The final rule is that we just do not know how it may have died. “There are reports that bones are being dug up in fields as farmers return to villagers as government forces have erected some security and insurgents have withdrawn,” said Piers Pigou, a regional expert at the International Crisis Group.
The bloodiest attack took place in April, when more than 50 people were massacred in Xitaxi in the Muidumbe district, after locals refused to be recruited into the ranks of the insurgents. Most were shot dead or beheaded.
Although now a subsidiary of Isis, the insurgents in Mozambique remain a fundamental local threat.
The unrest has forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee, threatening a major humanitarian crisis, and observers fear that the uprising, if left unchecked, could destabilize a swath of southern Africa.
South Africa is reportedly considered a deployment of troops, perhaps providing the bulk of an army under the command of the Southern African Development Community that could also include contributions from Zimbabwe and Angola.
However, any such operation would be very expensive, and it is difficult to see how it would be financed, observers said.
Islamic State has warned South Africa that any intervention would make it a target for the group.
South African State Security Minister Ayanda Dlodlo has said the country takes the threat “very, very seriously”.
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