The bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff image should be as ugly as ever in the NBA reboot. But the Nets and Wizards were never serious threats to major seeds anyway. The gap between the upper East and West is as small as it has been in years. There should be some fantastic playoff series in the East, assuming everyone stays healthy.
The Bucks, Heat and 76ers made critical changes in the weeks leading up to the close of March 11. It is easy to forget about them given everything that has happened since. But those moves could determine who emerges from the Orlando conference:
Milwaukee Bucks
Marvin Williams did not set the world on fire after joining the Bucks in mid-February, averaging 4.0 points on 41.0 percent shooting in 11 games. But the 15-year veteran could still be a big part of his playoff success.
The Hornets bought Williams so he could play for a contender. He was the victim of his rebuilding project after Kemba Walker’s departure, on the bench for younger players despite having a lot of gas left in the tank.
It is best known for being the no. 2 overall pick in the 2005 draft, ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams, but no one lasts that long in the NBA without talent in their own right. Williams is a prototype of forward stretch power that should be able to play at a high level for a few more seasons. At 34, he is two years younger than Robert Horry when he won the last of his seven NBA titles with the 2007 Spurs.
Williams, like Horry, is the size (6-foot-8 and 237 pounds) to stay in the paint while he can move his feet in space. She is also a proven shooter who shot 37.8 percent of 3 in 4.2 attempts per game in her last five and a half seasons in Charlotte. He doesn’t have the same story of heroism in the playoffs, but the best player he’s played with is Joe Johnson in Atlanta.
The Bucks need a big man who can open the field for Giannis Antetokounmpo without giving up anything on defense. Williams is no longer the elite athlete he was at his peak, but he is still a better perimeter defender than Brook López, Robin López, or Ersan Ilyasova. His protection problems in space don’t matter in the regular season because Milwaukee’s defense is based on protecting the tire at all costs, but during last season’s playoffs, it was his Achilles heel. Toronto could always get a basket in last year’s Eastern Conference finals by exposing Brook Lopez in a pick-and-roll against Kawhi Leonard.
A team like the Celtics could use a similar strategy with Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum. That’s where Williams becomes important. It is a versatile defender that can protect the entire floor. Look at how well he paired up with Pascal Siakam in a win over the Raptors in late February:
While he doesn’t have the same type of offensive game as Lopez, that shouldn’t be a problem playing alongside Giannis and Khris Middleton. All Williams has to do is detect the 3-point line and move the ball if it is not open. He hasn’t shot 3 well in his short time in Milwaukee (29.6 percent on 2.5 attempts per game), but those numbers should return to his career averages on time. The other important skill he brings is taking care of the ball without making mistakes. Williams is averaging 1.4 assists on 0.3 turnovers per game for the Bucks.
Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer prefers those types of trusted veterans in his rotation. Third-year great man DJ Wilson has the same abilities as Williams, but Bud buried him on the bench. Historically, he doesn’t make a lot of adjustments in the playoff series, so Williams is already gaining his confidence in the regular season.
The key role for Williams will be playing in smaller alignments with Giannis at 5. He’s been much better at those than on more conventional front courts with the Lopez twins. It goes from a net rating of plus-26.7 in 49 minutes with the reigning MVP to plus-0.5 in 154 minutes without him.
Playing with four 3-D players around Giannis puts opponents in an almost impossible position. They can only leave a defender on him without having any place to attack on defense. That formula is Milwaukee’s best shot at winning its first NBA title in nearly 50 years. If that happens, Williams will likely have taken some major hits along the way.
Miami Heat
Miami made a big impact on the business deadline when it rescued Andre Iguodala from his self-imposed exile in Memphis. The Heat expelled Justise Winslow, James Johnson and Dion Waiters in a three-team deal in exchange for Iguodala, Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill. The Iguodala, who signed a two-year $ 30 million extension with a team option for the second season, was supposed to be the missing piece.
It hasn’t worked that way until now. Rust was inevitable for a 36-year-old man who was left out for the first two-thirds of the season. But Iguodala doesn’t fit as well in Miami as it does in Golden State, either.
The team’s top two players, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, are the South Beach version of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid in the sense that no stellar duo can space the floor. It wasn’t such a big deal for the Heat because everyone else in their rotation can shoot 3s. Iguodala, who is shooting 37.5 percent from 3 in 1.7 attempts in 14 games with his new team, is now the exception. His shooting numbers are in line with his marks (34.2 percent on 2.4 attempts) in six seasons with the Warriors. More troubling than the percentages are the lack of attempts. The defenses leave him open at the perimeter and he rarely makes them pay.
Iguodala has a net rating of minus-35.7 in 37 minutes with Butler and Adebayo. It’s a small sample size, but there’s no reason to think that those three can play together against an elite defense. Spacing just doesn’t work. Check out how the Pelicans forced the ball into their hands in a victory over the Heat in March:
His striped jumper didn’t matter at Golden State because he was playing with three of the game’s best shooters, all of whom could move off the ball. Iguodala could start the crime and find them scattered around the perimeter, a role not available to him in Miami.
He has been better in a second unit lineup with Crowder having many 3-point shooters at Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson and Kelly Olynyk. That group, which has a net plus-39.8 rating in 73 minutes, has the space to unlock Iguodala’s hack and play ability on the move.
Crowder has been the more valuable acquisition term of the two. He’s averaging more minutes (28.7 per game) than Iguodala (18.5) because he’s not afraid to shoot from 3, shooting 39.3 percent in 6.8 attempts per game in Miami. The Heat need their supporting cast to complement Butler rather than replicate him.
Both veteran wings could lose playing time to promising rookie Tyler Herro, who is healthy after missing 15 games with ankle pain. However, Iguodala would still be a winner. She took four months off and still managed to get an additional $ 15 million from a team that doesn’t make much sense. It is big business if you can get it.
Philadelphia 76ers
Philly quietly added three solid rotation players in the month before the league suspended play. The team traded three second-round picks to Golden State for Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III, and benefited from the unexpected promotion of second-year guard Shake Milton after Ben Simmons fell with a back injury. Now coach Brett Brown has to figure out how the three fit into Simmons, who should be close to 100 percent when the NBA resumes.
The first question is whether to move Al Horford back to the bank. Horford, Simmons and Joel Embiid have not played well together this season. There just isn’t enough room for all three to operate. Simmons and Embiid go from an offensive rating of 98.8 in 429 minutes with Horford to 110.0 in 360 minutes without him.
Benching Horford creates a place in the starting lineup for Milton, Burks or Robinson. Each one brings something different. Milton, the best shooter, has an advantage over Burks, the best player, and Robinson, the best defender.
Milton’s appearance was one of the few bright spots in a disappointing season. A 2018 second-round SMU squad that spent most of its G-League rookie season, averaged 12.8 points on 52.6 percent shooting, 3.1 assists and 2.7 rebounds in its last 20 games with the 76ers, including the 39-point score against Clippers on March 1:
He won’t continue shooting 51.2 percent of 3 as he did during that stretch, but there’s no reason to think his performance is a fluke. Milton was an elite shooter in college (career 42.7 percent from 3 to 5.1 attempts per game) with oversized (6-foot-5 and 207-pound span of 6-foot-11) and the ability to create plays outside of dribbling and in the pick-and-roll. He is a multi-dimensional offensive player who should be able to spot Simmons and ease some of the pressure of the game on the half court.
The blow to Milton upon entering the league was that his inferior lateral swiftness would prevent him from resisting on defense. But that should be a minor problem with all the great defenders surrounding him in Philadelphia.
The 76ers didn’t know they would get a lot from Milton when they traded for Burks and Robinson, but they can still help their new team. The former averaged 16.1 points and 3.1 assists per game for the Warriors and provides some offensive hit from the bench. The latter is a low maintenance 3 and D wing that can defend three positions.
This is the deepest team Philly has ever had in the Simmons and Embiid era. While it’s a low bar to clear, making a jump from bad to average in your supporting cast is huge. The 76ers now have an elite defender (rookie Matisse Thybulle) and an elite shooter (Furkan Korkmaz) as their ninth and tenth men. They will only go as far as their two polarizing stars take them, but their RPG players will no longer be the ones to stop them.
