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Moderna’s shares rose more than 14 percent in trading after hours after the positive results of the company’s “Phase 1” study of its vaccine candidate mRNA-1273 COVID-19.
Moderna’s experimental vaccine contains genetic material called messenger RNA, or mRNA, which is a genetic code that tells cells what to build. According to results published in the New England Journal of Medicine, mRNA-1273 “induced rapid and strong immune responses” against coronavirus and “binding antibodies”.
| Heart | Security | Latest | Change | Change% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | MODERN INC. | 75.04 | +3.26 | + 4.54% |
The study included 45 healthy adults between the ages of 18 and 55 who received two vaccines 28 days apart. Participants were divided into three groups, one with a dose of 25 micrograms or µg, one with 100 µg, and one with 250 µg (1 ug equals 1 / 1,000 milligram).
The vaccine was found to be generally safe and well tolerated, with the most notable adverse events from the first vaccine observed at the 250 µg dose level, with three of the 14 participants in the group (21 percent) reporting one or more events serious.
Adverse events were more common after the second vaccination, occurring in seven of 13 or 54 percent of the participants in the 25 µg group.
Furthermore, the 15 participants in the 100 µg group and the 14 participants in the 250 µg group suffered some type of adverse impact, the most common of which came out of the 100 ug group were:
- Fatigue – 80 recent reports
- Chills: 80 percent reporting
- Headache – 60 recent reports
- Myalgia: 53% report
All reported cases were mild or moderate in severity, although injection site pain was reported to be 100 percent.
The candidate mRNA-1273 vaccine was found to produce the highest immune response at the 100 µg dose.
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The “Phase 1” data is “encouraging and represents an important step forward in the clinical development of mRNA-1273, our candidate for the COVID-19 vaccine,” said Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna, in a statement: “We are committed to advancing the clinical development of mRNA-1273 as quickly and safely as possible while investing to expand manufacturing so that we can help address this global health emergency.”
The Moderna vaccine candidate is currently in a “Phase 2” study to assess their safety, possible adverse side effects, and immune response with each participant receiving 50 μg or a dose of 100 μg in two vaccines given with 28 days apart.
Moderna has plans for a “Phase 3” study beginning July 27 with 30,000 participants. Moderna said it has completed manufacturing the vaccine required to begin the “Phase 3” study and is on track to be able to administer approximately 500 million doses per year, and possibly up to 1 billion doses per year, starting in 2021.
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Moderna never obtained commercial approval for any of its drugs or vaccines, but analysts at Jefferies believe the company’s mRNA-1273 vaccine candidate could hold promise.
Jefferies analyst Michael Yee wrote in a note to clients that there is a “good chance that the Moderna vaccine will work and get at least an emergency use authorization in 2021”, and that a safe and effective vaccine “can lead to billions in sales, which we see as reasonable given that there would be high demand in the first 1-2 years. “
Jeffries analysts predict that 50 million people will be vaccinated in 2021 at $ 50 per dose. Under that scenario, Moderna could earn around $ 2 billion in 2021 and $ 5 billion in the coming years.
Yee added that if 100 million or 200 million people receive vaccines at a higher price, “this can quickly reach large amounts of $ 10-20B + in theory.”
However, he also acknowledged that if the vaccine is not found to be safe and effective, the Moderna stock would be “greatly affected.”
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Moderna’s vaccine candidate is one of five selected as part of the White House Operation Warp Speed Initiative to accelerate the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
| Heart | Security | Latest | Change | Change% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZN | ASTRAZENECA PLC | 53.98 | +0.74 | + 1.39% |
| JNJ | JOHNSON AND JOHNSON | 147.92 | +2.71 | + 1.87% |
| MRK | MERCK & CO. INC. | 78.25 | +0.90 | + 1.16% |
| PFE | PFIZER INC. | 35.23 | +0.02 | + 0.06% |
Other companies with vaccine candidates selected by the program include Astrazeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., and Pfizer.
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