Because the People of Baseball does not appreciate windy introductions, let’s be hasty and concise: the regular 2020 season is roughly one – third of the way, so let’s talk about some things that have surprised us so far. Yes, surprises. Let’s talk about it.
1. Five of the biggest losers of 2019 are in the playoff position in 2020
Of course, the expansion of the postseason from 10 to 16 teams, which means that the majority of MLB teams will pass the playoff pattern, has a lot to do with this. Even within that framework, it’s a bit shocking in 2020 to examine current standpoints and find that the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies, and San Diego Padres are currently in the running to reach the playoffs. make. While it was widely expected that the Padres would take the next step, thanks to their young talent base and the Rockies still have the roster of the team that made the playoffs in 2017 and 2018, the success of the rest – and in that light, the totality – of these teams provides a surprisingly early turn of events. Also of note is that the owners of the top three picks of the 2020 draft – the Tigers, Orioles, and Marlins – are in this group.
Last season, these five teams completed a combined 211 games under .500, which – just verified this – is a lot. The average winning percentage of these five teams in 2019 was a paltry .369. In 2020, that figure has risen to .605. To put a finer point on things now, let’s show how the odds for each playoff playoff have improved since the opening day:
|
Orioles |
0.9 percent |
18.0 percent |
|
Tigers |
2.1 percent |
17.8 percent |
|
Marlins |
7.9 percent |
21.4 percent |
|
Rockies |
17.5 percent |
64.8 percent |
|
Padres |
27.7 percent |
70.0 percent |
As you would expect, the chances of each team improving dramatically in just over a fortnight. The Rockies and Padres are now playoff favorites, and the Orioles, Tigers and Marlins all have something like a one-in-five shot. Even considering the idiosyncrasies of such a short season, few would have expected figures like that to show up for teams like this. Yet these numbers are, by looking back in dumb disapproval because of your hasty assumptions.
2. The Cardinals have played only five games
On one level, it is not surprising that the 2020 season would be compromised by COVID-19. The Marlins maintained a cluster that saw 18 players test positive for the virus, but no team has adhered to its scheme after tapes like the Cardinals. As of this writing, the Cardinals have played five of their scheduled 60 games. In contrast, the Braves 20. September 29 has not played a game, and it is not certain when the cards can take the field again. Maybe it’s by Friday, but nothing is certain.
The wheels came off on July 31, when the Cardinals’ scheduled game against the Brewers was postponed because two St. Louis players tested positive. The next day, the number of positives increased – eventually to seven players and six staff members – which led to the entire series being postponed in Milwaukee. Shortly thereafter, the opener of the series was dumped in Detroit and then the entire series. The team remained quarantined at their Milwaukee hotel until Aug. 4, when they were evacuated to St. Louis. Louis to travel for a series against the Cubs. Then, however, an additional three positive tests within the Cardinals caused series to be put on ice. A subsequent additional positive test prompted postponement of the Busch Stadium series against the Pirates, which would begin on August 10th. Then, a makeup doubleheader against the Tigers – an attempt to play the games originally scheduled for August 4 and 5 – was also postponed.
Currently, those are 13 straight proposals for St. Louis and count. Even if the team is able to kick off action against the White Sox in Chicago on Friday, these games will be an impossibly heavy lift within a compressed calendar. Commissioner Rob Manfred has already indicated that teams that have been hit hard may not be able to make 60 games, and that is exactly what the Cardinals are describing right now. Even 50 games can be ambitious for St. Louis. Louis. If the Cardinals claim one of the eight playoff spots in the NL when playing significantly fewer games, it could undermine the already dubious legitimacy of the 2020 season. Again, it is not surprising that the pandemic felt its presence acutely this season, but the extent to which the Cardinals have been following suit is unexpected.
3. Charlie Blackmon heads .472
MLB has not had a .400 hitter since Ted Williams in 1941. But Blackmon of the Rockies is poised to give it a go in 2020. To be sure, a .400 season over just 60 games will give them an asterisk the have added large amounts of an overdose asteroid, and rightly so. But after nearly 80 years, we will be taking our .400 seasons in whatever form they take.
When it comes to maintaining high speeds in this peculiar and wonderful sport, always bet against it happening, and this instance is no different. He probably won’t do it. That said, a few things suggest that Blackmon’s hunting for .400 still deserves your attention the rest of the way.
First, Blackmon currently has a .397 expected batting average, which is what its average should be based on contact quality. That said, while he’s lucky with marking .472, he’s in the remnant of .400 when it comes to his “earned” average. In matters relating to the SportsLine Projection Model (@SportsLine on Twitter) predicts Blackmon over the rest of the 2020 season to bat .344 in 160 bats. Should that happen, Blackmon will come up with a batting average of .390. That, coincidentally, is what George Brett fought for in 1980 when he made an inroad on the converted mark of note.
An even bigger goal for Blackmon would be to break the record for the highest handball average over 60 games. That belongs to Rogers Hornsby, who fought June 21 to August 29, 1924 .466 for the Cardinals.
4. The Astros have trouble
The Astros have revamped 311 regular seasons in the last three regular season (2017-19). That span also included a few pennants and one World Series title in 2017. So far in 2020, however, the Astros are just 8-10 – that includes a 0-5 mark against teams that have a winning record – and out of playoff position. Sure, it’s early in terms of total games played, but it’s not particularly early in terms of the regular season’s 60 games.
Hooston’s positive run differential suggests that the club has been a bit unhappy to this day, and the expanded playoff field lowers the bar for relevance significantly. That said, there is pressure on the Astros to perform this season. They come from the sign-stealing scandal that rocked baseball back in those days of pre-coronavirus (and so have something to prove), and they perform under a freshman manager in Dusty Baker and freshman GM in James Click.
Unfortunately for Houston, the pitching situation could lower its ceiling in 2020. Depth in rotation was a concern that came up, somewhat with the loss of Gerrit Cole to free agency (and to a lesser extent the losses of Wade Miley and Collin McHugh ). Then ace Justin Verlander fell down with a forearm strain, and it is possible that he will not pitcher again this season. That leaves a void behind 36-year-old Zack Greinke, one who is even more concerned about the Astros’ general inability to develop young starting pitchers (and they currently rely on a number of young starting pitchers).
Things in the bullpen can be even more grim. Backlash closer Roberto Osuna (elbow) may not even be able to return in time for the playoffs. Fellow relievers Brad Peacock, Chris Devenski, and Joe Biagini are also on the IL, filling in closer Ryan Pressly treated arm wrestling earlier this season and struggled recently in his first attempt to pick on back-to-back days in 2020. Little wonder that the Astros are currently tied for the MLB lead in blown savings. Things are so that she recently took a flyer on 41-year-old Fernando Rodney, he of the 5.66 ERA last season.
Again, it says here that the Astros will likely rebound and pick up a winning record, but injuries and unwillingness of owner Jim Crane to invest in payment traffic at levels appropriate to the market’s team and competitor’s status. the World Series means that the Astros are unlikely to reach the aforementioned heights of 2017-19 this season.
5. We are on pace to have the lowest average handball average ever
Coming into the limelight of Wednesday’s games, hitters combined throughout MLB for a batting average of just .235. While the handball average of the league in general has been declining since 2006 or so, this mark represents invisible depths so far. In 2018, for example, MLB’s batting average was .248, meaning it fell below the .240s for the first time since 1974. However, the current figure is somewhat different.
Here is the current list of averages for lowest league match in the history of premier leagues:
- .237, 1968
- .239, 1888
- .239, 1908
- .242, 1967
- .243, 1884
Like you all from the high top Mt. Sporting wisdom, the 2020 season is on pace to set the all-time “record” for the lowest average batting, assuming you are ready to recognize records set during a 60-game season. You will notice that the other fellow travelers are from the 19th century, the Deadball Era, or the late 1960s, in which crimes were so cramped that the pitcher’s mound was lowered. In contrast, run scores, walks, home games, and strikeouts are all at the high end of the historical continuum at the moment. As has been the case in recent seasons, MLB has an issue of “balls in play”, in which we simply do not see the defense involved enough. To some extent, that is reflected in the league .235 batting average. In 2020, the sport has more pressing concerns, but this is a long-term concern when it comes to the structure of the current game.
Speaking of “lowest batting average of all time”, Cleveland is currently batting .195 for 2020. To find a team batting average that is low over an entire season at the highest level, you need to go all the way back to the St. Louis area. Paul White Caps of the Union Association. Given that modern baseball dates back to the American League and National League Agreement prior to the 1903 season, you could say that Cleveland is on track to record the lowest batting average in MLB history. As detailed above, Cleveland’s current sub-.200 batting average is considered a symptom of a larger disease.
