We got into the habit of watching the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series. Tampa Bay rays? Not more
The Astros entered their fourth straight ALCS, the longest streak since the 1998-2001 Yankees. Houston scored 33 runs and 12 home runs to win over Annie in his four-game division series. Carlos Correa has led the revived Astros offense this postseason, with four homers, 12 RBIs, an average of .500 and 1.715 OPS in six games.
Rays is making the second ALCS appearance in franchise history; They beat the Red Sox in seven games in 2008 before losing to the Phillies in the World Series. The top seed of AL, the rays are surprisingly solid in all aspects of the game with a deep deep lineup, a stable starting clock and a raft of power weapons in the bullpen.
The odds say …
Rays have a 63.3% chance of winning the series. (ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle forecasts)
How they got here
Rays: Powered by impressive pitching staff, including three potential asses in Black Snell, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glassno, Tampa ran away with two AL East races and sharpened Oakland for the league’s best mark. Brandon Lowe was the only true offensive lineman who finished 12th in the Major with 289 runs and made the .753 team an OPS.
Wild-card category: Beat Toronto 2-0
A.L. Section section: Beat New York 3-2
Astros: Despite finishing the regular season with a 29-31 record, the Astros finished second in the American League West with an automatic playoff berth. Bringing down injuries during the year, the offense finished 14th in the Major with 279 runs and the pitching staff MLB ranked MLB’s 13th best at 4.31 p.m.
Wild-card category: Beat Minnesota 2-0
A.L. Section section: Beat Auckland 3-1
Series schedule
At San Diego
Game 1: Sunday, October 11, TBS
Game 2: Monday, Oct 12 Oct., TBS
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct Kto. 13, TBS
Game 4: Wednesday, 14 Oct Oct., TBS
Game 5: Thursday, 15 Oct Oct., TBS (if required)
Game 6: Friday, Oct 16, TBS (if required)
Game 7: Saturday, October 17, TBS (if required)
Three reasons to win the rays series
1. They have been the best team in the American League all season
The Rays went 40-20, dominated the Blue Jays and outscored the tough Yankees. They may not have any superstars, but their 28-man roster is the most important in the AL and becomes even more important in the seven-game series, with no breaks from the first two rounds. They have five quality starting pitchers if they use five (Rookie Josh Fleming is the No. 5 starter and went 5-0 with a 2.78 ERA). A week ago, no one had heard of Pete Fairbanks and he came out of a bullpen firing a 100-mile laser at the top of the strike zone. A week ago, no one had heard of Randy Arozerena and now he is one of the stars of October.
Most importantly, this is a team that knows it can win. It buys all the creepy aspects that deploy rays like opener or outfield or four-man defensive alignment in all platoons. Little engine they take certain pride in being what they can be. They are a good defensive team, they can score home runs and they can even surprise you with a stolen base.
2. Randy Arozerena, the best player on the planet
Speaking of the rookie outfielder, if we nitpick the rays, it would be that no player in the lineup can really scare you. Brandon Lowe was the best hitter of the regular season and he is certainly underrated with a .269 / .362 / .554 line and 14 home runs, but he is also a striking strikeout-suspicious guy and he is slipping. Insert the Arozera obtained from the Cardinals into the Se Faces. The 25-year-old Cuban tested positive for Covid-19, so he did not play until August 30. He then hit seven home runs in 59 batters in September and three more against the Yankees. Right now, you can’t get any fastballs through him: Indeed, 9 of his 10 home runs have come against fastballs (seven) or sinkers (two).
3. They match the Astros
With a lineup featuring just three lefties in Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker and Josh Reddick, the Astros batted with a platoon advantage of just 43.2% of the time in the regular season, the lowest in the major. Yes, three of the five Tampa starters are lefties (Snell, Ryan Yarbro and Fleming), but that’s all an excuse for power rivals after the right-handed Houston Batters. Wright hit .197 with a glasswoo, including placefs, but pay attention to the bullpen numbers: .114 vs. Nick Anderson, .159 v. Diego Castillo, .208 v. Curtis. Cidermer Ryan Thompson was actually the least effective of the group, allowing an average of .276 but has been trusted in high-profit situations in the postseason (and he could serve as an opener in Yarbro and / or Fleming games). And then on offense, Rays with his right-handed lineup against Framber Valdez and his left-handed lineup against Wright Starters, with the guys available on the bench to counter Dusty Baker’s bullpen moves.
Three reasons to win the Astros series
1. The offense is back
The 2019 Astros, according to the state-of-the-art metric weight run (adjusted for parks and eras), was the second-best offense, just behind the famous 1927 Yankees. In 2020, the Astros ranked 17th … in the Major. It was quite a fall with a lot of potential revelations, but the Astros crushed the very good Oakland pitching staff over four games in the division series, scoring 12 home runs with .332 / .388 / .594. Carlos Correa has been locked out with four home runs and 12 RBIs in six playoff games, but perhaps the best sign is Jose Altuwe (two home runs.429 OBP) looking better after a pathetic regular season.
Four games doesn’t mean the Astros have suddenly turned everything upside down, but this confirmation looks like the lineup we saw in 2019 (after the injured Jordan Alvarez). Also keep this in mind: despite struggling even at that time in the regular season, the Astros had the lowest strikeout rate among major companies. You have to make your earnings against Houston.
“It’s just our common crime,” Kyle Tucker said after killing him. “We didn’t show much of this during the season, but this lineup can do this every night. This can happen at any moment from 1 to 9 and we’re doing this whole series.”
2. Framber Valdez is pitching like an ace pony
The 26-year-old Lefty entered the Majors in 2018 and was an interesting prospect, but more than 100 innings in the Major in 2018 and 2019, mostly for relief, he struggled to command the strike zone, averaging nine rate 7.7 walks. 4.60 Era innings and postings. Its quietly had a very good regular season tu, running -3–3 with the -3.-3E IRA, running only 2.0 per nine, and therefore a better 2.85 FIP. In two playoff outings – a five-inning shutdown relief against the Twins and a 1-game victory over that game – he has scored two runs and seven hits in 12 innings.
Valdez’s curb ball is his best game as he has .124 hits against him in the regular season and .111 so far in the post season, and that would put him in any count. He gave up two home runs in his early innings against Anne, but even though he leaves very tight contact, he is usually on the ground with a 60% ground ball rate. That’s good, and right now he’s pitching with a high level of confidence.
3. Anoli Persid, pop-up reliever
It seems like every postseason, there is someone in the Ultimate World Series Champion who emerges in October and becomes a huge part of the bullpen. For the Citizens last year, it was Pte Daniel Hudson who acquired the trade, who had four saves and the final three outs of Game 7 of the World Series. For the Red Sox in 2018, it was K Kelly who had a 39.3939 ERA in the regular season. The next version of the series went light in the postseason, including six scoreless innings. For the Astros, it could just be Rookie Pardes, who hit three full innings in two outings against A.
The Houston Bullpen had some issues, especially at the start of the season when there were nine rookie relivers at the time. Even now, certainly depth is definitely questionable. Pardes, who had a 3.05 ERA in 20 E innings, relied primarily on the mph-mile fastb ball and slider (in his two matches against Auckland he threw 76% of the fastb ball time). Including Class A and Double-A Paradise last year, he gave up just 50 hits in 94 innings with 128 strikeouts, so here’s some great stuff. With the prospect of having seven games in seven days, Dusty Baker won’t be able to use his start for relief like the first two rounds, so watch the periods to get key innings in the middle. Closed games.
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