From a particular vantage point on a particular graph, the coronavirus curve in Michigan looks near flat.
If you look at the seven-day rolling average of new COVID-19 cases, the Michigan chart took a start from a dip after the stay-at-home orders were in place for a while. Then it slowly climbed back up and looks towards the end of July as early as August to reach a plateau.
From August 1 to August 13, the seven-day rolling average of new cases remained between 648 and 760, a variation of less than 100 cases. That is less variable than the average of seven days in July, when it varied by 407 cases over the month, than in June, when it varied by 199 cases.
“We have been cautiously optimistic that we have seen a plateau in cases over the past few weeks, following increases in June and July,” said Michigan Department of Health and Human Services Public Information Officer Bob Wheaton.
Yet that optimism comes with a certain amount of sadness from experts with infection who say that Michigan’s numbers are at different levels, despite the apparent plateau.
“This is not what we hope to achieve. As epidemiologists, we want to see a consistent downward trend, ”said Dr. Teena Chopra, Professor of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, for the Wayne State University School of Medicine.
The case numbers are still too high
“I would rather the numbers are lower,” Aubree Gordon, an associate professor of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health, said in an interview.
She pointed out that in current cases rates, “many schools say they can not be 100% personal or in personal instructions. I think a level of coronavirus that does not overcome the hospitals, but prevents education in our state is not acceptable. “
Schools in Michigan may open in the current phases, but some schools have chosen to start the year online. If Michigan slips back into the economic reopening of Phase 3, the phase the state was in when the house-to-house order was in place, schools could not do instruction in-person.
One of the major reasons that the number of cases matters is hospital capacity. Currently, the state has hospitalized 655 patients, far fewer than the nearly 4,000 in-patients at the peak of the virus earlier this year.
But Chopra warned that we are going after the regular flu season, and if that combines with cases of coronavirus, hospital space could once again be a concern. And the mini-outbreaks we see across the state, she said, are exacerbating hospitalizations.
It reflects spikes in various areas of the state
Daily new COVD-19 cases per province, per 100,000. 1- 17 August 2020. Animation by Scott Levin | MLive. Data by MDHHS.
And that is one thing that the daily number does not reflect; how the virus plays out differently in different areas of the state.
It is not as if a day with 498 cases meant there were six in each of Michigan’s 83 counties. Instead, Chopra said, what we see are small spikes due to local outbreaks.
“Yes, they are planning to leave,” she said of the local business numbers.
“But we’ve also seen upticks from local outbreaks.”
Related: The coronavirus number of Upper Peninsula has more than doubled in the past four weeks
At a press conference last week, Michigan Chief Medical Executive, Dr. Joneigh Khaldun is the example of what they see in the Detroit region, which has an average of 50 cases per million per day. The city itself, she said, averages 26 cases per million per day, while areas around it are driving that number up. Macomb County, for example, had 82 cases per million people per day.
‘We remain cautiously optimistic that we as a state are in the right direction. But the distribution of COVID-19 by region looks different, ”she said.
The number of people who test positive is more than 3%
The number of people testing Michigan per day has changed over time, but it is not the case that we just find more cases because we test more people.
We know that because of something called the business positivity rate; how many positive cases we find divided by how many tests have been completed.
Remember this: two days can show both 500 positive cases, but on one day it could be 500 out of 20,000 tests, a 2.5% positivity score, and the next day it could be 500 out of 10,000 tests, a 5% positivity score . The first example is a much better result, even though the topline number of 500 positives every day was the same.
Experts including Chopra and Khaldun have said they are looking for a business positivity rate of less than 3%.
“There is a positivity figure that we hope to keep below 3%,” Chopra said.
During the entire pandemic, Michigan’s positivity figures fluctuated and remained reliably below 3% in June.
But on August 16, Michigan’s rate was 3.5 percent. During the August plateau, it was submerged twice below 3%, on 7 and 11 August, when it reached 2.9%.
No rest on this plateau
So, what should be done in an era where case numbers may look better than they are when you call back a few layers of data?
The same thing experts have been saying for months. Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Collect occurrences in large groups.
Although Khaldun said she was cautiously optimistic about the state’s data, she said, “What we also know is that even if the trend stabilizes, it only takes a few people to make an outbreak and the disease spreads rapidly in “We still see outbreaks in the state in each region, and these are in many different institutions.”
Without a vaccine, Chopra said, Michiganders must observe social distance and wear masks.
‘We are on a plateau, but we are not out of the woods. There is no vaccine yet. We need to remember that there is no vaccine and the virus is there. “The virus has not magically disappeared from the face of this earth,” said Chopra.
In other words, even on a plateau of cases, Michiganders cannot become independent.
MLive Reporter Julie Mack contributed to this story.
Note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Macomb County has 82 cases per million people per day.
COVID-19 FIXING TIPS:
In addition to washing your hands regularly and not recommending your face, officials advise exercising social distance, assuming everyone carries the virus.
Health officials say you should stay at least 6 feet away from others and work from home, if possible.
Use disinfectant wipes or disinfect spray cleaners on frequent touches of surfaces in your home (door handles, faucet, tire tops) and carry hand sanitizer with you when you go to places like shops.
Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan, has also issued executive orders requiring people to wear face masks over their mouths and nostrils in public indoor and outdoor areas. See an explanation of what that means here.
Additional information is available at Michigan.gov/Coronavirus and CDC.gov/Coronavirus.
For more information on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.
Read more:
Michigan college students return to campus, and their parties are plagued by coronavirus
Tuesday, August 18 Coronavirus data by Michigan Province: See counties with highest, lower infection rates
Is the rise of coronavirus elsewhere a justification for Michigan’s slow approach to reopening?
Coronavirus Risk Assessment for Michigan Schools: Where and When Is It Safe to Reopen?
