If humans continue to emit greenhouse gases at current speeds, global sea levels could rise by more than 15 inches (38 centimeters) by 2100, scientists say in a new study.
Greenhouse gases emitted by human activity, such as carbon dioxide, contribute significantly to global warming and global warming, studies show. As things get warmer, the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica melt. A new study by an international team of more than 60 ice, ocean and meteorologists estimates how this melting ice sheet will contribute to global sea levels.
“One of the biggest uncertainties about how much sea level will rise in the future,” said project leader and ice scientist Sophie Noviki, now at the University at Buffalo and formerly at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight, project leader and ice scientist Sophie Noviki. Center in Maryland, said in a statement. “And how much the snowflakes contribute really depends on what the climate will do.”
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The results of this study show that if the melting ice sheet of Greenland and Antarctica continues at its current speed, greenhouse gas emissions will contribute more than 15 inches (28 centimeters) to global sea levels. The new study is part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercompression Project (ISMIP6), led by NASA Goddard.
The ISMIP6 team investigated how sea levels would rise between 2015 and 2100, to find out how sea levels would change in different carbon-emission scenarios.
They found that, during this period, high emissions (as we see them now) have expanded, with Greenland’s melting ice sheet increasing in global sea level by about. contribute (9 cm) will contribute. With low emissions, they estimate that number is about 1.3 (3 cm).
It is a bit more difficult to predict the loss of ice sheets in Antarctica, because, as the ice sheets to the west of the continent continue to erode, East Antarctica can actually gain mass as temperatures rise due to snowfall. Because of this, the team found a wide range of possible ice sheet losses here.
The team determined that a reduction in the ice sheet in Antarctica could lead to an increase in sea level by 12 (30 cm), while an increase in sea level up to 7.1 (18 cm) in West Antarctica would increase to 2100 with the highest estimated emissions.
However, to be clear: these increases in global sea levels are forecasts for 2015 to 2100 years, so they are not responsible for the significant ice sheet damage that has already occurred between the pre-industrial industrial age and the modern day.
“Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica and Wilkes Land in East Antarctica are two regions that are sensitive to warming ocean temperatures and changing currents, and will continue to lose large amounts of ice,” said Helen Serosi, an ice scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The same statement was also made in Southern California, which led Antarctic ice sheet modeling in the ISMIP6 project.
“With these new results, we can focus our efforts in the right direction and learn what needs to be done to continue to improve estimates,” Serosi said.
These results are consistent Estimates made by an intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), whose 2019 special report on the oceans and cryosphere shows that melting ice sheets contribute about one-third of the total global sea surface.
According to the 2019 IPCC report, melting ice sheets in Greenland will contribute 3.1 to 10.6 inches (8 to 27 cm) to global sea level rise between the years 2000 and 2100. For Antarctica, the report estimates that the ice sheets will melt and add up to 1.2. 11 inches (3 to 28 cm)
The results obtained from this new work, according to the next statement, will help to report the sixth overall report in the next IPCC report, which is stated in the same statement.
“The strength of ISMIP6 was to bring together most of the world’s ice sheet modeling groups, and then connect with other communities of ocean and atmospheric modeling, to better understand what can happen to ice sheets,” said Heiko Goelzer, a. A scientist from the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands, who is now at the Norse Norwegian Research Center in Norway, said in a statement.
“It took six years of workshops and teleconferences with scientists from around the world working on ice sheets, atmospheres and ocean modeling to build a community capable of ultimately correcting additional sea surface projections,” said Noiki, who leads Greenland. Ice Sheet ISMIP6 Project. “The reason was that the polar community is small, and we are all very eager to get this problem of future sea level right. We need to know these numbers.”
This was work 17 Sept. In a special issue of the journal The Cryosphere.
Email Chelsea Gohd at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter @chelsea_gohd. Follow us on Twitter @speed.com and Facebook.
