By refusing to take steps to allow as many Americans as possible to run in the election – and by raising open doubts about the legitimacy of the poll – Trump embraces tactics used by authoritarian leaders in countries with compromised democratic institutions , said experts.
“On the one hand, he claims that postal voting can delegitimize the election, while openly declaring that he opposes funding the post office to suppress the vote,” said Nic Cheeseman, professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham. “It’s a move from the populist playbook: blame someone else for the thing you do yourself.”
Trump’s moves also come at a time when some countries are expanding the availability of mail – in ballots and other early voting initiatives in an effort to get people to participate in elections without risking their health at polling stations.
As Cheeseman points out, in the event of an election in the US, Trump “chooses the postal service as an enemy while installing an ally to carry it out, which means that Trump himself is the person in the best position to to manipulate it. ”
Of course, postal votes are inherently more vulnerable than votes in person. “The two most important vulnerabilities are how do you know that people are not filling in votes under duress, and how do you know that the vote is getting to the point where it needs to be counted,” Cheeseman said. But he added that ballot papers were “safe if the institutions are safe and impartial”, and that there was “very little evidence of the postal votes being manipulated in the past.”
Post-elections and other alternatives to personal suffrage have also been successfully used in other countries, from Australia to the United Kingdom.
Katya Andrusz of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in the European Bureau for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, which will monitor the US elections, points to Switzerland, where it is estimated that this method is used by 90% of the electorate.
Trump also linked his unsubstantiated allegations of post-ballot fraud to his explosive suggestion last month that the U.S. election be delayed until the pandemic had subsided. Only Congress can delay a presidential election, but his remarks have still won almost universal condemnation.
Elections have been postponed in dozens of countries since the pandemic began. In some of those nations, critics believe the pandemic is being exploited by politicians who want to prevent voters.
Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, announced last month that the city’s elections would be delayed by a year due to a second spike in the virus. Opponents say they are using emergency laws in colonial times to slow down the vote to prevent a reduced political defeat, following Beijing’s introduction of new security laws on the semi-autonomous city.
In Bolivia, an interim government has delayed presidential elections several times, sparking protests and accusations from the opposition that it is trying to stay in power indefinitely.
There are examples of nations where elections have been postponed to less controversy – mostly in New Zealand. However, there was broad agreement from all parties that this was the right course of action.
Clearly, this is not the case in the US, where Trump not only discredits the democratic process, but interferes in it. Experts said his movements could have consequences outside the borders of America.
The long-term risk, Cheeseman said, is that Trump “undermines confidence in the election process, risks political violence, and seeks alternatives to democracy. And if that happens in America, it could easily have a ripple effect around the world.”
And that can have even greater consequences than copycat behavior from other leaders. “There is a link between US domestic policy and the credibility of US foreign policy,” said Andreas Bummel, executive director of Democracy Without Borders. “Seeing Trump claim that the election might be rigged, while apparently trying to push himself through the postal service, makes it harder for America to call for democracy in other countries.”
And if he stays at home sowing distrust in American democracy, that could tarnish the democratic model elsewhere.
“Public confidence is essential to the functioning of any democratic election process, and for that reason it is an area that we always pay close attention to in our election observation,” Andrusz said. “A significant level of mistrust in any part of the system can undermine public confidence in the whole process.”
Trump probably does not seem to change tack as November 3 approaches. But the damage done to the cause of democracy at home and abroad could last far beyond election day.
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