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KUALA LUMPUR – While all eyes were on the presentation of Malaysia’s crucial budget in early November, the seeds of what could be of greater importance to the nation’s seemingly endless political intrigue were being sown in the north.
The impeachment of Perak Menteri Besar Ahmad Faizal Azumu last Friday (December 4), following his failure to win a vote of confidence in the state assembly, took nearly six weeks of delicate discussions among his own allies from the Umno state chapter with counterparts of fierce rivals of the Democratic opposition. Action Party (DAP).
“Until the day of the motion itself, we weren’t sure whether Umno would really pull the trigger,” a source from the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, which includes DAP, told The Straits Times.
A Umno lawmaker had tabled the motion, in which 24 opposition lawmakers from PH Perak and 24 Umno assembly members voted against Datuk Seri Faizal, who hails from Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.
Umno had been enraged for months by the Bersatu vice president’s unilateral approach to governance and his attempts to force a schism on the largest member of his administration.
The opposition’s natural enmity with a sitting head of government was deepened by the fact that Faizal had defected from PH in March despite being its prime minister after the 2018 elections.
The carefully orchestrated vote of confidence that overthrew Faizal took a long gestation period due to skepticism on both sides when biting into the forbidden fruit.
After all, they have spent decades demonizing each other, a mutual strategy that has led to great success.
Umno accuses the DAP of an anti-Malay Muslim agenda, while DAP points to endemic corruption in Malaysia’s longest ruling party, which enjoyed six decades of hegemony after independence in 1957.
But after its overwhelming success in ousting Faizal, which only got 10 votes, PH strategists believe it could be the first of three possible phases of cooperation between the unlikely pair that are the two largest parties not just in the legislature. of Perak, but also the federal parliament.
The next problem is establishing a stable government, as snap elections are undesirable given that Malaysia is still in the midst of its worst wave of coronavirus infections.
A Umno-PH government (the three parties in the opposition pact are known to act as a bloc) remains a dark result, but could even lead to an electoral pact in Perak when the expected elections are called after the pandemic subsides. .
If these two boxes were checked, it would have national ramifications, potentially breaking Tan Sri Muhyiddin’s already unstable Perikatan Nasional (PN) pact that only controls 112 seats in the 220-member parliament.
As with Perak, Umno has disliked playing a supporting role against Bersatu at the federal level, even to the point of flirting with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to replace Bersatu’s boss, Muhyiddin.
A PH official told The Straits Times: “It would be almost impossible to win back the federal government if the PN enters the next election as a united alliance. Whatever the damage, we would suffer from working with Umno. At least we have a chance if the La Barisan Nasional coalition led by Umno clashes with the rest of the PN “.
Those in the Datuk Seri Anwar camp also believe that Faizal’s removal, and even more so a possible deal with Umno to form a government, could revive their hopes for a similar outcome at the federal level and end his 22-year wait to convert. in prime minister afterwards. being fired as deputy prime minister in 1998.
It will still require a careful massage of egos and public rhetoric.
“Howard Lee of the DAP, a rising star in the ranks of the opposition and known among Malaysians for his heavy Perak Malay accent and deep knowledge of Malay culture, was a key player in Ahmad Faizal’s departure.
“In recent weeks, Mr. Lee worked hard to achieve the shocking result by skillfully negotiating with various groups,” wrote ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Fellows, Faizal Musa and Norshahril Saat.
Umno, led by President Zahid Hamidi, twice received an audience from the Perak Palace to present their claim to lead a new government. But the blow to his vice president has left Bersatu reluctant to endorse a replacement for Umno.
Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) had initially said that it would not be part of a new government in a knee-jerk reaction to what it viewed as an act that endangered the unity between it, Umno and Bersatu.
He later said that he was open to discussions, but stressed that the Muafakat Nasional agreement between the three parties must be upheld.
Umno has 25 members in the 59 assembly members, with Bersatu and PAS with five and three respectively.
It is understood that Umno has managed to summon the support of a rebel representative from Bersatu and a member of the independent assembly, and would pass the 30 mark by a simple majority if he can attract the PAS back.
But The Straits Times understands that Perak’s ruler, Sultan Nazrin Azlan Shah, wants a new prime minister to enjoy a large majority to ensure the stability of his administration.
In the last twelve years, the state has seen narrow majorities as a result of at least three changes of government in the medium term.
This vast majority would be achieved if PH, in which DAP has 16 out of 24 assembly members, were on board.
Zahid has said that Umno is open to forming a government with all parties, while the head of Perak DAP, Nga Kor Ming, has repeatedly expressed his willingness to put aside differences in the public interest.
Both Zahid’s camp in Umno and the DAP in Perak have suffered a backlash internally over their courtship, prompting Mr. Nga to provide various explanations.
“Perak DAP’s willingness to cooperate with Umno proves … the alarm that DAP is ‘anti Malay or anti Islam’ is completely false.
“It must be emphasized … the fundamental principle is to form a multiracial government that is clean, with integrity and guided by ‘good governance’,” said Mr. Nga.
The new love between the two old enemies has already been contagious enough that Hasni Muhammad, Johor’s chief minister of Umno, handed over an unprecedented RM200,000 ($ 65,650) each to opposition assemblymen for election expenses, which resulted in the state budget being passed unanimously on Sunday.
This is despite the fact that his government only has 29 of the 56 seats in the assembly, where Umno and DAP are the largest parties, with 14 members each.
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