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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump has reached a virtual tie with Democratic challenger Joe Biden in Florida, just a week after the former vice president had a narrow lead there, a Reuters / Ipsos opinion poll showed on Wednesday.
Less than a week before next Tuesday’s election, a second Reuters / Ipsos poll showed the two candidates standing side by side in Arizona.
Reuters / Ipsos is polling potential voters in six states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona – who will play a critical role in deciding whether Trump wins a second term or whether Biden removes him.
Below is a state-by-state analysis of the Reuters / Ipsos findings, based on online responses from potential voters:
FLORIDA (Oct. 21 – Oct. 27)
* Vote for Biden: 49%
* Vote for Trump: 47%
* A previous poll had shown Biden with an apparent advantage of 50% -46%, with the margin on the edge of the poll’s credibility range.
* 32% said they had already voted.
* 48% said that Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 42% said Trump would be better off.
* 52% said Trump would handle the economy better. 41% said Biden would be better off.
ARIZONA (from October 21 to October 27):
* Vote for Biden: 48%
* Vote for Trump: 46%
* The two are statistically linked as the margin is within the credibility range of the survey.
* A previous poll also showed a statistically even career, with 49% for Biden and 46% for Trump.
* 37% said they had already voted.
* 50% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 42% said Trump would be better off.
* 50% said Trump would handle the economy better. 44% said Biden would be better off.
MICHIGAN (October 21 to October 27):
* Vote for Biden: 52%
* Vote for Trump: 43%
* Biden was up 51% -44% the previous week.
* 32% said they had already voted.
* 52% said that Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 39% said Trump would be better off.
* 48% said Trump would handle the economy better. 45% said Biden would be better off.
NORTH CAROLINA (October 21 – October 27):
* Vote for Biden: 49%
* Vote for Trump: 48%
* Since the margin is within the poll’s credibility range, the race is statistically tied, as it was in the previous poll when Biden was 49% versus Trump’s 46%.
* 35% said they had already voted.
* 48% said that Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44% said Trump would be better off.
* 51% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 43% said Biden would be better off.
WISCONSIN (October 20-26):
* Vote for Biden: 53%
* Vote for Trump: 44%
* Biden’s lead is marginally wider than his 51% -43% lead the week before.
* 33% said they had already voted.
* 52% said that Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 38% said Trump would be better off.
* 47% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better off.
PENNSYLVANIA (October 20-26):
* Vote for Biden: 50%
* Vote for Trump: 45%
* Biden’s lead is marginally wider than last week when he was up 49% -45%, a lead that was on the edge of the survey’s credibility range.
* 21% said they had already voted.
* 50% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 42% said Trump would be better off.
* 50% said Trump would handle the economy better. 43% said Biden would be better off.
NOTES
Reuters / Ipsos opinion polls are conducted online in all six states in English, as well as in Spanish in Arizona and Florida.
* In Florida, October 21-27, it collected responses from 1,006 adults, including 704 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Arizona, October 21-27, it collected responses from 1,007 adults, including 714 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Michigan, October 21-27, it collected responses from 1,005 adults, including 652 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In North Carolina, October 21-27, collected responses from 1,006 adults, including 647 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Wisconsin, October 20-26, it collected responses from 1,008 adults, including 664 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Pennsylvania, October 20-26, it collected responses from 1,001 adults, including 653 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
(Reporting by Jason Lange; Additional reporting by Chris Kahn; Editing by Peter Cooney)
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