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As protests erupted in the streets of Bangkok in early October against King Maha Vajiralongkorn and his family, Thailand declared an emergency.
The king, who lives in Germany and returns for short visits, ordered the crackdown after what was described as an action by protesters that had an impact on the royal caravan transporting his wife.
But after just two weeks, the Thai prime minister lifted the emergency. And he himself now faces calls to resign.
Malaysia has no protest. What we have is a parliament with a minority government (or a government with a very small majority) led by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.
The time for reckoning has come for Perikatan Nasional (PN). He faces the possibility that the 2021 Budget will be blocked due to growing opposition within his flexible coalition of political parties.
Under normal circumstances, when a prime minister or prime minister faces a vote of no confidence, he or she would be replaced or new elections would be called after consultation with the head of state. This happened in Sabah.
The resulting state elections in Sabah saw a new coalition of parties come to power. It was democracy in action.
But the downside of observing democracy in the midst of a pandemic was the increase in Covid-19 cases. All of Sabah is under lock and key and many have lost their lives.
The spread of the virus has spread in Peninsular Malaysia despite social distancing rules.
The question arises whether social distancing rules are really effective, especially when there are elections.
Selangor and several other states that saw almost no Covid-19 between March and September are seeing a second and third wave on the rise, with an increasing number of victims.
Given the circumstances, should the government call for new general elections in view of the unstable position of the ruling Perikatan Nasional government?
In an ideal situation, a new mandate should be requested. That is true blood democracy. But we are not in an ideal situation. We have seen what happens when the polls are called.
Also, there is a growing group of people who are simply fed up with the politicking and just want a stable government until at least the country comes out of the Covid-19 situation.
They just want to run their business and affairs. Things are tough enough without the political shenanigans.
Unemployment is increasing and more people are seeing their income level decline. Ask any small business operator and they will tell you that business is down at least 40%.
In the midst of the dire economic situation, the 2021 Budget is crucial. What the government has in store to keep the economy running is important to businesses and investors.
In recent weeks, it has become apparent that the Muhyiddin government may not get support when the 2021 Budget is presented in the next session of Parliament next month.
Some parties within the PN coalition want a smooth handover of power, which is unlikely to happen. Hence the threat of a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister.
Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad resigned in February this year in a move that was considered to prevent Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim from taking office. Apart from that incident, a sitting Prime Minister rarely resigns.
So what we have is a unique situation where a sitting Prime Minister may not have the support of the majority in Parliament. However, the prospects for a new election are unattractive. In fact, it turns your stomach. There is also unlikely to be a smooth handover because no one knows for sure who really has the support of the majority in Parliament.
Muhyiddin may be ousted, but is there anyone who can legitimately claim his position as prime minister? Assuming Anwar takes over, can anyone say for sure that his new government will not collapse in the next two years?
Therefore, Malaysia is planning an emergency, as did Thailand. Details have yet to be explained.
However, what has become clear is that the Emergency Rule will only affect political activities.
It does not refer to the economic activities and other daily activities of the country. It does not mean that soldiers patrol the streets or that a curfew is imposed.
The broader goal of the Emergency Rule is to allow the 2021 Budget to be passed and the current government to remain in power, at least until the Covid 19 pandemic is contained.
Whether this argument will affect investor confidence remains to be seen. Until the details are known, no one can predict with certainty what impact the emergency will have on the market.
Having an emergency rule is certainly an unorthodox method of overcoming the current situation of a minority government ruling a country besieged by the Covid-19 pandemic.
But Malaysia has undertaken unorthodox methods before and survived.
According to the Constitution, the Emergency Rule is for a period of up to six months, after which it must be revised.
For investors, these rules should only be established as a temporary measure due to the unique situation facing the country. A prolonged emergency rule is unhealthy as it leads to abuse of power.
It should be reviewed after six months, or even earlier, and once the situation allows, powers should return to Parliament. Thailand, after all, only had a two-week emergency.
M Shanmugam is the former Specialist Editor of The Star. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author.
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