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Everyone keep calm, it’s happening.
Liverpool have agreed a fee with Bayern Munich for the transfer of Thigao Alcantara (£ 20 million with a possible £ 5 million in add-ons), according to various reports. With Liverpool and the player already on personal terms, the deal should be completed in no time.
Adding Thiago pushes Liverpool’s transfer business into a whole new stratosphere. Think about it: When was the last time Liverpool signed a world-class player from one of Europe’s elite powers? And when was the last time you signed a world-class player from one of the European powers that the power station wanted to keep? It has happened in the modern era.
(One could argue about the return of Ian Rush from Juventus, but the club was fine for him to leave; perhaps Paul Ince on his return to English AC Milan football. Maybe).
Since the 1990s, Liverpool have signed players on the brink of greatness: Fernando Torres, Luis Suárez, Xabi Alonso, Mohamed Salah, etcetera. Rarely, if ever, did he get a world-class star at the height of his powers from one of the greatest teams in Europe.
The closest examples are probably Vigil van Dijk, Alisson Becker and Salah. All were immediately world-class, but all signed from the second or third level of Europe or were even overlooked by other high-ranking members of the European elite.
The importance of this moment cannot be overstated, just in that context. As I have said before in these pages: Thiago is not only good at what he does, he is the best. And what is equally interesting about the deal is that Liverpool’s transfer structure held tight to its main tenants to secure this deal.
Moneyball ”is a term that is used so often that it has come dangerously close to losing all its real meaning. No doubt, while you’ve kept pace with Thiago’s speculations, you’ve seen the phrase quoted over and over again. Or, in some cases, the Liverpool-centric Moneyball synonym: “the model.”
It does not fit the model. This is not how Liverpool operates. That’s not something Michael Edwards would do. You’ve heard it over and over again throughout the long, long, long, and please make it stop the Thiago saga. In essence, all “Moneyball” – or “the model” – means taking advantage of an inefficiency in the market and finding players who are either underrated or cheaper than they should be, ideally both.
In fact, a lot of Liverpool signed during the leap from one side almost – perhaps to the conquering machine that they became – they were the second or third choice of decision makers at the time.
Liverpool have never before looked at a player of the Thiago type, older, with a spotty injury history, because never before have they been able to attract someone like Thiago, a world-class midfielder who would fit in comfortably at any time in the world. football.
Yes, Thiago is 29 years old. Yes, your injury history ranges from dire to disturbing, depending on your perspective. But he is also one of the most accomplished and accomplished midfielders in Europe, someone with a world-class skill set to support his reputation as a world leader. It’s a pinch of Xavi, Busquets and Iniesta all rolled into one: a metronome at the base of midfield who can also take the ball, drive, beat a man, and dictate the pace between the lines. He is a rare and unique type of player.
When Pep Guardiola arrived in Munich looking to transplant the Barcelona model to Bayern, his transfer policy was simple: “Thiago oder nicht”. Thiago or nothing. It became a public and private mantra that hammered over and over again until the Bavarian club was able to secure the player’s signature. I knew Thiago was something a bit special.
Thiago struggled with injuries during the early part of Guardiola’s tenure, but has since become the player the coach envisioned, the type that a Champions League winner could be built on. Thiago has been the most active “on the ball” player in the Bundesliga for the past three seasons. He has received more passes and had more pass attempts (and completions) than any player in the Bundesliga on a 90 basis during that time frame. He also leads the league in ball recoveries from half opponents during that time, as well as completions in the final third. At 29, he has become the ultimate version of himself: a unique self.
Right now it is the peak of those powers. He has been the main architect of Bayern’s recovery with Hansi Flick. With Thiago directing midfield and setting the pace for the team, Bayern have transformed from a team that seemed constantly stuck in the mud at the rear of the Nico Kovac era, on the more dynamic side of Europe, making their way towards another European. Cup.
The model, as much as it exists, is about getting players below market value. So what is the value to a player who can sit and drive at the base of midfield, who can waver between the role of a driver in a single pivot or a partner in a double pivot, which is what the best team builds? of Europe? around.
You just have to look for the answer in the Premier League rivals closest to Liverpool. Last year Manchester City signed Rodri, a safety for £ 63 million. Rodri is 23 years old with a limited injury history. Thiago is 29 years old and has a spotty injury history. But to argue that Thiago would be half of Rodri’s player at this point or for the next two or three seasons would be wrong.
Rodri had an excellent debut season in the Premier League (not an easy thing to do when you go past the more static Spanish league), but he wasn’t the best deep midfielder in his league. Their base numbers were regular; His nerdy metrics (xGBuildUp, xGChain) go along with what Fernandinho offered from the same spot a year earlier, plus an indicator of City’s goal production and the mindset that everyone gets a touch than individual excellence.
City paid a lot of money for a player who would be very good now and excellent in the future, someone who could become Fernandinho. The goal of the club was to build a team that could reflect Bayern’s success: national and European dominance. And Guardiola and the hierarchy of the boards thought that the player they could trust in the long term to become the chief architect in midfield was Rodri. For that type of player, £ 63 million makes sense.
But it also highlights the excellent £ 30m offer for Thiago at the peak of his career. If he has three more seasons at the same level as the last three in Germany, that’s £ 10 million a year for one of the best midfielders in the world. A bargain.
And that’s the whole model: Chase value; find bargains.
The problem with the old model is that Liverpool were chasing City and the rest of the European upper class. They had to mine diamonds. They had to find the courage in Rome, Southampton and Hull.
Now they have arrived. With that come new challenges: greater difficulty negotiating reduced prices, higher salary demands from rookies (Hi, Timo Werner), and a shortage of players who could actually improve the first team, let alone who would be happy to sit down. on the bank and miss out on all the fun (Hello again, Timo!). But it also opens up new and exciting possibilities: the opportunity to bet on one or two players, the ability to attract players who wouldn’t have been interested as recently as three years ago.
Thiago falls on that last side. So while the old model indicates that a deal doesn’t make a lot of sense, it’s time to consider what the updated model would look like. Liverpool have never attracted a player from the statue of Thiago at the peak of his powers to Anfield because they have never been able to attract such a player. Now, through a confluence of success and Jurgen Klopp’s style and personality, they have been able to add the best deep midfielder in the game. And they did so without breaking the model, but adhering to its most basic principle.
What I’m reading …
To Thiago’s archives! Here is my depth on what Thiago will bring alongside and why Jurgen Klopp was so eager to add the midfielder. One of our preseason predictions has already come true. Will Thiago’s entry mean that Gini Wijnaldum will come out? Andrew Beasley responds.
Outside of Thiago, this was an eye-opening piece on the state of football’s finances. Football as a whole has lost more than eleven billion. Oh!
How can you not spend half an hour on an oral history of ‘The Town’?
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