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Sabah’s elections may be over, but the race to form the state government has only just begun.
Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), which comprises Perikatan Nasional (PN), BN and PBS, won a simple majority in last night’s elections after securing 38 of the 73 contested electoral districts, which is a two-seat majority.
Conventionally, the chief ministerial candidate would swiftly be sworn in and then convene a special state legislature to appoint up to six nominated state assemblymen, who can bolster the majority of the new government.
A unique Sabah system, nominated representatives enjoy the same rights as an elected state assemblyman. Your vote also counts in keeping or changing the prime minister.
This is what former Prime Minister Musa Aman tried to do after the general elections on May 9, 2018.
At the time, Musa’s BN was at a standstill with the Warisan Plus alliance as both coalitions won 29 seats respectively. In that election a total of 60 seats were disputed.
He quickly made a deal with Star, who had won two seats, for his support and was sworn in as chief minister on May 10, the day after the elections.
However, before Musa could call a special state assembly to name the nominated assemblymen who will be friendly to his government, Warisan President Shafie Apdal engineered a series of defections that cost Musa his majority.
Shafie was sworn in as prime minister on May 12, two days after Musa took office.
Four days after that, Shafie named two nominated assemblymen and another two the following month.
Fast forward to today, GRS, which has a slim majority, would also want to move in a hurry as Shafie could pull off another string of defections like he did in 2018.
Complicated coalition of coalitions
However, unlike in 2018, where Musa was the undisputed lead ministerial candidate of the BN, the GRS is a more complicated coalition of coalitions.
Of the 38 seats that GRS won, PN has 17 seats, BN took 14 seats while PBS secured seven.
The PN, which won the most seats within the GRS, sees itself as the natural coalition to weigh in on who should become prime minister.
Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin previously nominated Sulaman’s newly appointed Assemblyman Mohd Hajiji Noor (down, second from the right) as the main ministerial candidate of the PN.
However, the 17 PN seats are contributed by two parties, namely Bersatu which has 11 and Star which has six.
In contrast, Umno argues that, although BN won fewer seats than the PN as a coalition, Umno as a party won the most seats in GRS.
The 14 BN seats were contributed by Umno. Their BN allies, PBRS and MCA, failed to gain anything.
As singles matches, Bersatu is second with 11 seats, while PBS is third with seven seats and Star is fourth with six seats.
“The prime minister of GRS must be elected by Umno“Said Umno President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi Malaysiakini.
However, legal procedure has little regard for the complexities of coalition politics.
Instead, all that matters is who has the support of at least 37 of the 73 newly elected assembly members, the minimum for a simple majority.
This means that no party in GRS can get its own candidate to take over as prime minister behind the back of its allies, since all parties are necessary to reach that threshold.
That is unless one of them makes deals with the opponent.
The delay gives time to close deals
In the Warisan Plus alliance, its undisputed lead ministerial candidate is Shafie Apdal.
However, the coalition formed by Warisan, Pakatan Harapan (DAP, PKR, Amanah) and Upko only won a total of 32 seats, which is five seats less than a simple majority.
Warisan won 23 seats, DAP took six, PKR secured two, while Upko received one.
If either party leaves the Warisan Plus alliance, it could cause GRS to fall as a government even before it is formed.
Shafie (down), speaking to journalists after the elections, indicated that he would not leave without a fight.
With 23 seats, Shafie argued that Warisan was the party that won the most seats in the Sabah elections, although it fell short as a coalition.
Furthermore, it noted that the fact that DAP was contesting under the Warisan flag meant that the “sailboat logo” ensured a total of 29 seats.
Without showing any hint of admitting defeat, Shafie was pressured if he would attempt to form the government even though their alliance fell short and his response was cryptic.
“We will observe how the situation progresses and also the process in terms of the political scene. The fact is that Warisan is the largest party,” he said.
Hardest scenario for Warisan Plus
However, unlike in 2018, the current situation is less favorable for Shafie.
On the one hand, Warisan Plus is considered an opposition alliance at the federal level, as Putrajaya is controlled by PN. All of the GRS parties that won seats in the Sabah elections are part of the federal government.
In contrast, the Warisan Plus alliance was part of the federal government led by Pakatan Harapan in 2018.
Furthermore, Shafie’s five-seat deficit in this election is larger than the two-seat deficit he faced in 2018.
The obvious choice is to recruit GRS assembly members into the Warisan Plus alliance, but there can also be many permutations, including the possibility of Warisan ditching its existing allies to form the government with certain GRS parties.
The more GRS reflects on who its top ministerial candidate is, the more time they will give Shafie to close deals.
Meanwhile, Hajiji (down) who is also the head of Sabah Bersatu, at a separate press conference in Kota Kinabalu last night, expressed confidence that GRS can solve about a chief ministerial candidate this morning.
“We will announce it tomorrow (today). It’s a guessing game, but we will announce it tomorrow (today),” he said.
Hajiji was already rallying the assembly members to his side when he was seen meeting the recently elected Assemblyman from Kemabong, Rubin Balang, who won as an independent.
Two other independent candidates also won the elections, namely Ruddy Awah in Pitas and Masiung Banah in Kuamut. Masiung is known to be GRS friendly.
Considering Sabah’s recent history in 2018 and its not-so-recent history when the PBS government also shot down through desertions shortly after the 1994 elections, nothing is certain until the new government is sworn in.
Yesterday’s snap elections were also due to Musa, who in July tried to make a Returns as prime minister by engineering defections, but was thwarted by Shafie who secured the dissolution of the state assembly. Musa did not participate in this election.
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