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HONG KONG, Nov. 8 (SCMP): Given that the battle for the U.S. presidency is likely to drag on for some time, regardless of the official outcome, observers say there could be an increase in tensions between the United States and China on issues thorns like Taiwan and the South China Sea ahead of the opening ceremony in January.
Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the Donald Trump administration is likely to continue to confront China over political, diplomatic and economic issues.
That could include labeling China’s persecution of the Uygur Muslim minority in Xinjiang as “genocide,” imposing more sanctions on Chinese companies or providing more support for Taiwan.
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“Trump has blamed China for the spread of [coronavirus] pandemic and you may think that it has cost you the elections, “Wu said.
“People likes it [US Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo and [White House trade adviser Peter] Navarro will also take his last chance to sabotage relations between China and the United States ”.
In the months leading up to the elections, several Chinese experts expressed concern that Trump’s tactics to attack China would herald a dangerous period in the relationship between the two countries and that tensions could peak if the incumbent president lost power. White House.
Two of the possible hot spots are the South China Sea and Taiwan. There have been several furious exchanges between Beijing and Washington this year over the United States sending aircraft carriers and surveillance planes to the disputed waterway, and why Beijing is intensifying its military exercises targeting Taiwan.
Liu Yawei, director of programs at the Carter Center China, said in August that China-US relations could enter their “most unstable period” between November 3 and January 20, calling on both sides to show restraint. in the South China Sea and Taiwan.
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Taiwanese officials previously said that the People’s Liberation Army, China’s army, had carried out more than 1,735 air sorties and 1,032 sea sorties into the autonomous island’s air defense identification zone since the beginning of the year.
Taiwan’s Defense Minister Yen Te-fa warned that Beijing could step up its military deployment against the island during the US elections, while Su Chi, a former head of its National Security Council, said the situation could become critical once that the electoral race has been decided. .
In the weeks leading up to the US survey, Washington approved three arms deals with Taipei, including the sale of drones, highly mobile artillery rocket systems, and 100 Harpoon coastal defense systems with 400 surface-launched RGM missiles. -84L-4 Harpoon Block II.
The agreements led Beijing to threaten countermeasures against Washington and Taiwan, and fears grew that the conflict could spiral out of control.
But Shi Yinhong, a professor of American affairs at Renmin University of China in Beijing, said it was possible that with Trump’s firm focus on the election there would be less chance of a major crisis occurring.
“The Trump administration is likely to continue its super aggressive playbook against China, but as its main focus is on the electoral fight, any surprise move that causes a major crisis is very likely off the table,” he said He added that any escalation in tensions was more likely to be gradual.
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The military leaders of the two sides spoke by phone in late August, and a week before the US elections, the nations held their first crisis communication conference in an attempt to reduce the risk of a military conflict. They also agreed to maintain regular communication channels.
And after Chinese rumors were triggered by reports of US troops carrying patches of an MQ-9 Reaper drone superimposed on a map of China during an exercise in September, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that The United States had no plans to attack claimed islands. by Beijing in the South China Sea, according to the Chinese Ministry of Defense.
Meanwhile, the two countries’ trade officials have also been in regular contact as they seek to keep the phase one agreement signed in January on track.
Lu Xiang, an expert on American affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that once the dust has settled and assuming a victory from Joe Biden, China will seek to resume high-level communications with the new administration.
“Biden views China as America’s biggest competitor, which leaves room for compromise and provides an opportunity for both sides to sit down, raise concerns, negotiate any adjustments to international rules, and find a way to address conflicts. “, said. said.
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Pang Zhongying, a professor of international relations at Ocean University in Qingdao, said that if Biden’s victory was confirmed, Trump’s power would be reduced, although that didn’t mean there would be no roadblocks for the next two months.
“As Trump is likely to take his election complaints to court, it will be difficult for China to establish communication with Biden’s team before the matter is resolved,” he said.
“Doing it in a high-profile way could be seen by Americans as China siding with Biden, which could be tricky.”
Shi said that China’s policy toward the United States is unlikely to change significantly before the new US administration comes to power. And if Biden were elected president, he would be unlikely to soften US policy toward China, as he would have to keep China’s hawks in the Democratic Party happy.
Zhu Feng, director of the Nanjing University Institute of International Studies, said China should exercise restraint and refrain from being too contentious.
“We need to keep a clear mind so that Trump has no chance of taking extreme measures,” he said.- South China Morning Post
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