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WASHINGTON: The US elections, eight weeks from Tuesday (September 8), come down to a handful of states on the battlefield that Joe Biden must change to take the White House from President Donald Trump.
All of the top changing states this year – Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Arizona – went to Trump in 2016, including four that voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2012.
In a sign of how critical they are, Trump travels to two of them, Florida and North Carolina, on Tuesday alone.
Challenger Joe Biden leads by an average of 3.2 percentage points on the battlefields, according to polling aggregate RealClearPolitics (RCP).
If the remaining 44 states vote as they did four years ago, Biden could change just the two biggest battlefields, Florida and Pennsylvania, and win.
Here’s a look at the top swing states:
PENNSYLVANIA
Biden’s birth state is the largest at stake in the Rust Belt, a north-central region marked by industrial decline over the past decade.
Trump volunteers are swarming the state, including the city’s suburbs, where they campaign door-to-door.
Pennsylvania has multiple socioeconomic regions, and Biden, whose campaign largely adheres to public health guidelines by primarily organizing online, has poured publicity resources into the state.
Large cities in the state will vote heavily for Biden, while rural western and conservative central Pennsylvania are pledged to Trump. The suburbs and the northeast of the state will be critical.
RCP average: Biden leads by 3.9 percentage points
MICHIGAN
Michigan leaned very narrowly in favor of Trump in 2016 and is being fiercely contested this year.
Trump has visited the Great Lakes state promoting the return of the United States, but his voters are concerned about the impact of the pandemic on the economy and the president’s response.
The top six decisive states in the 2020 U.S. elections were won by President Donald Trump in 2016, but his Democratic challenger Joe Biden leads in each of them. (Photo: AFP / Mandel Ngan)
Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has clashed with the president, and his forced shutdowns have angered conservatives, many of whom arrived with guns to protest this summer in the state capital.
PCR: Biden by 2.6
WISCONSIN
Democrat Hillary Clinton chose not to campaign in America’s dairy lands in 2016, and voters punished her for it.
This year, Democrats highlighted Wisconsin, locating their national convention there last month, though the meeting was moved online over concerns about the coronavirus.
Trump and Biden visited Kenosha last week when they offered contrasting views, while Vice President Mike Pence and his running mate Kamala Harris campaigned in the state on Monday.
CPR: Biden by 5.0
FLORIDA
The largest of the swaying states is the anchor of the Sun Belt, the band of states in the southern and southwestern US that is rapidly growing in population, featuring agricultural and military industry and large numbers of retirees.
Republicans are mounting a fierce defense here, and Democrats accuse them of actively suppressing the vote, particularly in communities of color.
The state’s huge Latino population will be key, and polls show they are less aligned with the Democratic list than in 2016.
Most experts say Florida is a Trump firewall; if violated, Trump is likely to lose the White House.
PCR: Biden for 1.8
NORTH CAROLINA
This traditionally conservative state approached Trump by three percentage points four years ago, but both sides acknowledge that it is now too close to call.
The North Carolina Governor is a popular Democrat who has received praise for his balanced response to the pandemic.
Republicans based their national convention here last month, though it was mostly online, and Trump was returning for his third visit in two weeks to the state that has already begun mailing his ballots.
PCR: Biden by 0.6
ARIZONA
Arizona has been a Republican stronghold for decades, but its constituency is changing, with a growing Latino community and an influx of more liberal Californians.
Conservative voters appreciate Trump’s efforts to restrict immigration and build a wall on the border with Mexico.
But Trump has hurt his prospects by repeatedly denigrating the late Senator John McCain, who represented Arizona for decades in Washington and still looms large in state politics.
CPR: Biden by 5.0
