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BERLIN / PARIS (Reuters) – Global alarm sounded on Monday for a possible second wave of coronavirus infections, after Germany reported that the disease was spreading faster just days after tentative first steps to ease the blockade.
The news that the “reproductive rate” (the number of people each person with the disease infects) rose again to 1.1 in Germany cast a shadow over the reopening of business on Monday from Paris beauty salons to Shanghai Disneyland . A rate that stays above 1 means that the virus is spreading exponentially.
Germany is being watched closely around the world as the most successful large European country in stopping the spread of the virus, thanks to a massive testing program. Chancellor Angela Merkel has often said that the rate of reproduction should be kept below 1 to prevent the health system from being overwhelmed.
Fears that a second wave of infections could halt the reopening of the global economy helped equity prices drop in world markets, reversing past gains. [MKTS/GLOB]
In the past month, investors have been heavily betting on a rapid economic recovery despite data far worse than any other on record. That has opened a gap between rising stock markets and free-falling economies that must reflect.
In Europe, the worst affected continent, Spain and France took important new steps to ease the blockades, while Britain revealed cautious measures that critics say sent mixed messages.
In Paris, traffic flowed along the Champs-Elysées as workers cleaned shop windows to reopen for the first time since early March.
“Everyone is a little nervous. Wow! We don’t know where we are going, but we are going,” said Marc Mauny, a stylist who opened his salon in western France at midnight when the new rules took effect.
Mickey Mouse welcomed small crowds in Shanghai, the first Disney theme park to reopen, with a strict limit on tickets. Parades and fireworks were canceled, and workers and guests had to wear face masks and control their temperatures.
“I think (these measures) make tourists feel comfortable,” said Kay Yu, a 29-year-old walker in a Minnie Mouse hat.
‘IT’S NOT OVER UNTIL IT IS OVER’
Germany unveiled its plans to reopen last week. Smaller stores have already opened and restaurants and cafes are expected to open soon.
German authorities say the estimated reproduction rate or ‘R’ becomes more volatile as the total number of infections decreases, and a brief increase is not necessarily dangerous. After a surge over the weekend, new cases fell again on Monday.
Chancellor Angela Merkel, a physicist whose simple assessments have been presented as models for a scientific approach to the crisis, said it was crucial that “people stick to the ground rules, that is, keep your distance, wear mouth protection and nose and show consideration for others. “
Karl Lauterbach, a Social Democratic lawmaker and professor of epidemiology, was concerned after seeing large crowds outside on Saturday in his hometown of Cologne.
“You have to wait for the R rate to exceed 1 and let’s go back to exponential growth,” he tweeted. “The relaxation measures were too poorly prepared.”
In South Korea, which largely avoided a shutdown with a massive testing and follow-up contact program from the outset, authorities rushed to contain a new outbreak tracked down in nightclubs.
“It will not end until it ends … we must never let our guard down on epidemic prevention,” President Moon Jae-In said Sunday.
New Zealand, which has halted infection with one of the earliest and toughest locks, said it would open shopping malls, cafes and movie theaters this week.
“The result is that within 10 days, we will have reopened most companies in New Zealand, and sooner than in many other countries in the world,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said at a press conference. “But that fits with our plan – go hard, go early – so we can get our economy moving again sooner.”
But some of the countries and territories that are opening their economies do not expect sustained declines in the spread.
Russia overtook Italy and Great Britain to report the highest number of cases in the world after the United States and Spain. However, President Vladimir Putin announced plans to ease blockade measures nationwide starting Tuesday.
India, which has blocked its 1.3 billion people since March, reported a record daily increase in cases, but said it would begin restarting passenger rail services, with 15 special trains, starting Tuesday.
Pakistan reopened markets, despite experiencing almost a third of their deaths in the past week.
In the United States, which has the highest number of deaths and cases worldwide, unemployment figures released last week were the worst since the Great Depression. President Donald Trump has been trying to shift the emphasis toward reopening the economy. Many states have begun to relax restrictions, even though cases continue to increase.
(Report from Reuters offices, Staff writing by Peter Graff; Staff writing by Timothy Heritage and Kevin Liffey)
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