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KUALA LUMPUR: The Sabah state elections in Malaysia are shaping up to be a complicated battlefield, as Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin faces opposition and at the same time faces pressure from his own allies.
Nearly a million Malaysians in Sabah will vote for their state government today, days after opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim made a bid for the post of prime minister. While a victory is crucial for Muhyiddin to defend himself against Anwar’s claim and to speed up a snap general election, the nature of the victory is equally key.
“Muhyiddin would like to see a Pyrrhic victory,” with his PPBM party winning the majority of the seats instead of his ally Umno, said Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
A big victory for Umno would give him room to push for a bigger role in an early general election, at the expense of the prime minister and his party.
Umno was key to Muhyiddin’s rise to power in February, which happened without elections. It is the largest ruling party in terms of seats in parliament, but has had to settle for a smaller role in the cabinet as it was removed from power in the 2018 elections.
The tension was exposed when the party said that it only supported the government at the individual level and not as a coalition. Now some of your lawmakers may have chosen to back Anwar.
Kingmaker States
If PPBM wins more seats on Saturday, “Muhyiddin would be in a strong position to claim that Umno is damaged while Muhyiddin is the real vote-shooter,” said political analyst Wong Chin Huat.
“He can dissolve parliament with PPBM running perhaps the same number of seats as Umno, thus prolonging his work.”
Sabah, along with its neighbor Sarawak, have previously played king-maker, as voters seek to have a local government aligned with the ruling federal administration. Combined, they hold 66 of the 222 total seats in parliament.
Located more than a thousand kilometers from the capital, across the South China Sea, Sabah has now become the center of political warfare.
It is also the epicenter of the country’s virus outbreak. Her election campaign has been haunted by politicians who tested positive for the coronavirus and some candidates chose to self-quarantine.
Snap general election
Muhyiddin has promised more development in Sabah as a key pillar of his campaign, as infrastructure and income levels in Sabah and Sarawak lag behind the Malaysian peninsula. One student made headlines in July when she uploaded a video of herself having to take an online test from the top of a tree for a better internet connection.
Investors are watching state polls closely, given Muhyiddin’s promise to hold a national election sooner if he wins. An early general election can trigger a sell-off of shares among foreign investors, which could be offset by domestic investors, said Ivy Ng, an analyst at CGS-CIMB.
“If Muhyiddin wins in Sabah, the market can be sure that by building on the momentum, they could also win the next election,” said Ng.
“The market may consider that it will have a stronger majority in parliament, which means a stronger political situation after the elections.”
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