Modeling Suggests Covid-19 Cases Rise Steadily Unless More Is Done



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COVID-19 | The number of Covid-19 cases in Malaysia is expected to rise steadily over the next four weeks, unless stronger interventions are introduced to reduce its spread, according to projections from the MRC Center for Global Analysis of Infectious Diseases. Imperial College London.

Their model estimated that the number of Covid-19 infections in Malaysia is projected to rise steadily to around 7,467 infections per day by December 8 if no new measures are introduced to slow its spread. It also projected that there would be around 16 deaths from Covid-19 per day.

This is an increase from the model’s estimate of 4,413 infections per day as of November 10. The figure is very different from the official count of 869 confirmed cases that day due to the model’s particular focus on accounting for the underreporting of Covid-19 cases.

The model also predicted that if public health interventions are strengthened such that Covid-19 transmission is cut in half, then the daily number of infections would drop to 647 by December 8, a reduction of about 91. , 3 percent compared to the status quo.

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