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NEW DELHI (The Straits Times / ANN): India is experiencing a minimum of six months of daily Covid-19 cases even as several Indian states have imposed restrictions to ensure New Year celebrations do not erode these achievements.
India, the second most affected country in the world by the pandemic after the United States, with more than 10.2 million cases, has seen daily cases hovering around 20,000, in stark contrast to a peak of 97,000 cases in mid-September.
Active cases have fallen below 270,000 for the first time in six months.
The downward trend in the second most populous country in the world comes despite Covid fatigue within the population, and not everyone follows social distancing norms or wears masks.
While there is no definitive single reason, epidemiologists and scientists believe that a key factor is that dense urban centers, which were hit the hardest, now have some level of community protection, along with a slower increase in cases in areas rural areas that are not as densely populated. populated.
Based on a government-commissioned mathematical study, a group of senior scientists in October concluded that the pandemic, which turned urban centers such as the capital Delhi and the financial capital Mumbai into Covid-19 hot spots, peaked in India in September and will bring it under control in February.
Delhi, for example, recorded 703 cases on Monday (December 30), compared with more than 7,000 new cases daily in November.
Professor Mathukumalli Vidyasagar, who led the study, said the October predictions “hold up pretty well.”
“The pandemic will reach a manageable proportion by the end of February. According to our current projections, it will reach 30,000 to 40,000 active cases, or possibly less, before the end of February,” said Professor Vidyasagar from the Indian Institute of Technology. Hyderabad, and also a member of the Royal Society of London.
“Cases are going down because the number of people who have developed immunity to the virus is high. The two serological surveys carried out by the ICMR (Indian Council for Medical Research) and our model also show that in cities the pandemic spread in the stages initials where people were huddled together and got in a little bit more contact with each other. It means that immunity also developed faster. “
Virologist Shahid Jameel noted that a series of serological surveys pointed to 30 percent positivity across India, and somewhere in the 50 percent range in large dense cities.
“This decrease (in coronavirus cases) has been constant and prolonged, with the fall somewhat slower than the increase. Within this fall in national figures there are small regional peaks and that will continue to happen in the coming days,” he said.
The country has had 148,000 deaths from coronavirus, according to the Health Ministry. Of these cases, 70% were men. Last week, there were two deaths per million people in India, compared to 47 deaths per million people in the US.
“The situation is very encouraging, but we must still remain vigilant. We must not squander our achievements with carelessness and premature declarations of victory. That is the lesson of world experience,” said Professor K. Srinath Reddy, President of Public Health Foundation of India, who noted that more effective testing and isolation protocols were also factors behind the recession. – The Straits Times / Asia News Network
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