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TOKYO (Reuters) – Yoshihide Suga, a former deputy of Japan’s Shinzo Abe, has become a strong contender to succeed him as prime minister, a result that would extend the fiscal and monetary stimulus that defined Abe’s nearly eight years in office.
Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, said on Friday he would resign due to a worsening chronic disease, setting the stage for a leadership election within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
While other potential successors have declared their intention to run, Suga, 71, has said he does not want the position. But such comments have been challenged by aggressive media pressure in recent days that put him squarely in the public eye.
“They are really going to try to get Suga to replace Abe and continue Abe’s rule without Abe,” said Sophia University political science professor Koichi Nakano.
In an interview with Reuters this week, Suga stressed the need to stimulate economic growth over and above tighter restrictions to contain the virus, pointing to the need to promote tourism.
“We need to consider what we can do to prevent the economy from falling off a cliff,” Suga said in his parliamentary office, displaying a large photograph of him standing next to US President Donald Trump.
The interview, in which Suga again denied that he wanted the job, was part of the publicity blitz before Abe announced his resignation, in which he gave interviews to at least four major news organizations.
A self-made politician, Suga was chosen by Abe in 2012 for the pivotal role of Chief Cabinet Secretary, acting as the government’s mouthpiece, coordinating policies and assembling herds of bureaucrats.
The winner of the PLD vote, which the national media said could be held around September 15, is virtually assured of the position of prime minister due to the party’s majority in parliament. The winner will serve Abe’s remaining term as head of the LDP, which ends in September 2021.
Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 63, a soft-spoken security hawk who aims to revive Japan’s regional economies, is also expected to run. Ishiba, a longtime critic of Abe, is popular with the public, but less so with the party’s members of parliament.
Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, 63, long considered Abe’s favorite heir, said on Friday he would run in the party’s elections, but the moderate Hiroshima lawmaker has struggled to gain traction among voters.
Possible candidates include Defense Minister Taro Kono, 56, who has a nonconformist image but has respected Abe’s key policies, and Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, 64, who has a reputation for being a tough negotiator.
Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi is popular, but at 39, many consider him too young.
The format that party executives choose to choose their next leader will have a major impact on the outcome. A decision is expected on Tuesday.
Typically, PLD MPs conduct a leadership vote together with rank-and-file party members.
However, in the event of a sudden resignation, an extraordinary vote can be called with participants reduced to parliamentarians and representatives of the local sections of the party.
“A regular election gives Ishiba a better chance,” said Steven Reed, professor emeritus at Chuo University.
In 2012, Ishiba beat Abe in a first-round party poll that included rank-and-file members, but failed to obtain a majority and lost in a second round, when only deputies voted.
Ishiba could also have an advantage if LDP lawmakers prioritize a leader who would help the party maintain its vast majority in a lower house election due to take place in late October 2021.
Talks about Suga as a contender emerged in April 2019 after he revealed the new imperial-era name “Reiwa” for use in Japanese calendars after the new emperor’s enthronement.
However, the veteran legislator has an image more of a behind-the-scenes operator than a front-line leader.
“The seal of approval will come through smoke-filled hindquarter deals in the LDP, but whoever wins will have to prove themselves by winning the next general election,” said Jesper Koll, senior advisor to asset manager Wisdom Tree Investments.
(Reporting by Linda Sieg; edited by David Dolan and William Mallard)
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