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PETALING JAYA: The third wave of the Covid-19 or R-nada infection rate dropped to 1.5 in four weeks from an initial level of 2.2, says Tan Sri Dr. Noor Hisham Abdullah.
The R, or reproduction number, is the infectivity rate and estimates the average number of people a Covid-19 positive patient can infect.
In a special press conference on Sunday (October 18), the Director General of Health said the infection rate was lower than the initial level of the second wave, which was 3.5.
“We successfully reduced it to 0.3.
“But the third wave is more challenging even though we are more prepared with capacity and public health works.
“The R0 value on September 20 was 2.2, but in four weeks it fell to between 1.3 and 1.5. You can estimate that daily cases will continue to increase, but it will not be drastic,” he said.
He said that even if the RO value stayed at 2.2, the number of infections could be more than 1,000 per day.
“If we do nothing, the cases will keep increasing. Possibly from 1,000 (per day) to 3,000. If this continues through October 31, we could see up to 5,000 cases.
“If we follow the projections of a value of 1.5, it could reach 1,300 or 1,200 cases a day by October 31. We are concerned, but if we all work together, we can reduce this.”
“What we have to do is reduce the RO to less than one. Efforts must be increased and people must stay home.
“To balance life and livelihood, the government has implemented the conditional movement control order (MCO) in certain areas. This approach is expected to flatten the curve, although it may take some time to do so,” he said.
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