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NEW DEHLI: As expected, Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) performed well in the recent general election on November 8.
The election result has demonstrated the faith and trust that people have in Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD party, regardless of international public opinion.
How the NLD has managed to maintain such strong support since its landslide victory in the 2015 election has been a mystery to many.
However, careful assessment suggests that three main issues drove domestic support: the Rohingya issue, the military, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
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HOW IT SOLIDIFIED THE ROHINGYA CRISIS
The Rohinya crisis, which saw nearly a million Rohingya refugees leave Myanmar for camps in Cox’s Bazaar, has been a double-edged sword for Aung Sun Suu Kyi.
Once an international icon of democracy and human rights after being placed under house arrest by the military for decades, as the leader of her country, she decided not to bow to international opinion calling for an inquisition amid concerns about ethnic cleansing.
Instead, he decided to take the pressure off the country last December, by leading a delegation to respond to allegations of genocide at the United Nations’ highest court in The Hague.
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While this courageous move earned her further support among loyal supporters within the country, international observers were nonetheless concerned that her exoneration of what appeared to be indefensible actions by the military would make her look like a puppet of the military system. defense of the country and hampered global efforts. to find a solution to a crisis of international proportions.
FILE PHOTO: Myanmar’s leader Aung San Suu Kyi attends a hearing in a case brought by the Gambia against Myanmar alleging genocide against the Rohingya Muslim minority population, at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in La Haya, the Netherlands, on December 10, 2019. REUTERS / Yves Herman / File photo
This did not stop Aung San Suu Kyi from vociferously defending the military clearing operations as a necessary response to the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) attacks on security posts throughout Rakhine state.
The NLD government not only branded ARSA a terrorist group, it accused the international community of ignorance and interference.
Aung San Suu Kyi has established her position as Myanmar’s foremost defender on the world stage. Time and time again, she used the occasion to protect her country against a wave of global criticism, efforts that gained support for her and the NLD government in Myanmar.
Demonstrations in support of Aung San Suu Kyi took place in the streets as thousands wanted to show their support before she left for the International Court of Justice, and the same number lined up to welcome her home afterward.
The fact is that most of Myanmar, with an overwhelming majority of the Bama / Burma ethnic group making up nearly two-thirds of the country’s population, hold the view that the Rohingya are illegal immigrants who should not be granted the citizenship.
READ: Comment: Old wounds, new denial in Myanmar about the Rohingya
READ: Timeline: Three years later, a look at the Rohingya crisis
MILITARY SUPPORT
A key source of tension that Aung San Suu Kyi must handle to rule Myanmar is the relationship with the military.
Although the military and the NLD government largely share the same opinion on the Rohingya problem, both sides have two diametrically opposed views on the country’s democratization process.
Myanmar’s democratic transition is a transition through a transaction whereby military leaders, who hold a quarter of Myanmar’s legislative seats by default, and democratically elected parties have to agree on a majority. of political issues.
Such a hybrid regime arrangement may seem puzzling to outsiders, but it is a system that the country has come to accept by involving the military actively in the country’s democratic process and allowing it leeway to hold on to some level of power to change a smooth transition. .
The people of Myanmar have swallowed the bitter medicine and have lived for five decades under a military regime, keeping in check their ultimate desire to move towards a full democracy free from military interference.
Myanmar soldiers march in formation during a military parade in Naypyidaw in 2018 AFP / Thet AUNG
They understand that the journey may have to be long if bloodshed is to be avoided. Voters are hopeful and optimistic that Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD can lead the country towards the democracy they envisioned.
Despite the emergence of many political parties, voters believe that the NLD is the only party that can eventually stand up to the military establishment, where senior party leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi, spent years in some form of detention during the military regime. from Myanmar. .
The people of Myanmar understand that their democratic transition is fragile. They were reminded of this when the military commander-in-chief, Major General Min Aung Hlaing, issued a statement on November 2 condemning the Union Election Commission and the NLD government for running the elections and subsequently He suggested in an interview with the media that he might not accept. the result of the vote.
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Such an assertion by the military chief alarmed many voters about the possibility of a military comeback. Additionally, a hard-line monk on the run, Wirathu, came out of hiding earlier that day to galvanize nationalist support for the army-backed Union, Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).
Most voters do not want to see a resurgence of the army in Myanmar’s democratic transition and they know that Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD is their best bet to manage that process.
COVID-19 PANDEMIC
The COVID-19 pandemic emphasized the need for a strong and stable government and worked to the benefit of the NLD government as voters became increasingly concerned about livelihoods and lives.
Travel restrictions and blockades across the country, especially in the wake of the second wave, weeks before the elections, may have also limited the campaign efforts of other parties, while the NLD government was able to use all resources and channels available to reach voters. – from the main print media in the country to radio and television programs.
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Campaigns were restricted across the country, due to COVID-19 restrictions, which limited the ability of many new and small political parties to make their way with voters.
Aung San Suu Kyi’s active use of Facebook also helped her speak directly to voters. He used social media regularly to remind citizens of government commitments and announce new initiatives to tackle the pandemic.
Myanmar’s leader Aung San Suu Kyi wearing a protective face mask and shield greets her supporters as she exits a voting rally for the upcoming November 8 general elections, Tuesday October 20, 2020, in Naypyitaw, Myanmar . (AP Photo / Aung Shine Oo)
The closures in areas of the country, including Rakhine state, may also have worked to the benefit of the NLD, where the overall safety message played to the advantage of the government in office.
Still, this election, which strengthens the NLD’s position in government, shows that voters want the NLD to stay.
Despite the concerns Myanmar voters have about the peace process with armed ethnic groups and the state of the economy, voters appear to have made an implicit pact with Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD: they would continue to vote for it and her match if she can do it slowly but surely. move the country forward.
However, the conclusion that, despite its victory, the NLD may not be able to usher in meaningful political change as long as the military wields considerable influence in Myanmar politics is sobering.
Dr. Nehginpao Kipgen is a political scientist, associate professor, vice dean and executive director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University. He is also the author of three books on Myanmar.
