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WASHINGTON DC: When it became clear in March and April that pandemic precautions would limit the activities of US presidential candidates, scheduled debates between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden were highlighted as a unique opportunity to alter the trajectory of the career.
But on the eve of the first debate, the probability that this encounter between the two candidates will change the results seems implausible.
Part of the reason for those lowered expectations is that they have been overshadowed by the looming battle for a Supreme Court nomination to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died Sept. 18.
READ: Comment: US Supreme Court Drama Makes A Most Unpleasant Presidential Election
In the past week, political attention has turned to the Senate, where Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, with the help of Trump, is moving closer to his goal of building a conservative majority in the courts for decades to come.
Even before Ginsburg’s death, the possibility of some event changing the outcome of the race seemed unlikely. Polls suggest that voters’ preferences have been set for months.
Political polarization has been a defining feature of American politics for decades, but Trump has intensified this dynamic over the past four years by creating a separate reality for his followers.
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TWO AMERICAS
The 2020 party conventions and the activities undertaken by Trump and Biden in this final leg of the campaign suggest that there are two Americas, and Americans in one group do not appear to be facing the same challenges as Americans in the other group.
In Trump’s America, the coronavirus pandemic is over and the economy is on the mend, but Democrat-led cities are on fire. He’s happy to be back in the arms of his Make America Great Again fans, who have crowded into tight spaces in recent weeks to see him.
Supporters of Donald Trump gathered to hear the president at a rally in Swanton, Ohio, on September 21, 2020 (Photo: AFP / MANDEL NGAN).
At Biden’s America, the pandemic remains out of control and no end in sight. People are struggling financially and claims for racial justice cannot be ignored for a long time. At Biden’s socially estranged events, she seems to spend a lot of time removing her mask and putting it back on.
The debates matter because they force these two realities to collide for an hour or two for three nights.
READ: Commentary: America’s fragile economy under Trump
THE FIRST DEBATE
The first debate will take place in Ohio and will be moderated by Chris Wallace of Fox News. The debate will last 90 minutes, and the time will be divided into 15-minute topic segments chosen by Wallace: Trump and Biden records, the Supreme Court, COVID-19, race and violence in cities, and the integrity of the election. .
Reporting on how the candidates are preparing suggests that Biden will surpass Trump in the first debate. Biden’s campaign took a multi-week studious approach, with mock debates in which a high-ranking Democratic politician played the role of Trump.
Meanwhile, a Trump campaign ally confirmed that the president has shown little interest in preparation: “The president’s view is that he has been president for four years; he has been training every day.” (Historically, incumbent presidents “lose” the first debate to the challenger because they do not prepare properly.)
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Additionally, Biden performed better than Trump in recent city hall-style forums in Pennsylvania. At separate events, Trump and Biden responded to questions from voters in undecided states.
Biden occasionally stumbled and stretched too long, but was otherwise competent and personable.
Trump struggled with predictable questions about his decision to downplay the severity of the coronavirus, and refused to directly answer questions about institutional racism. Trump wrestled with the same issues in an August interview with Axios and a July interview with the moderator of Tuesday’s debate, Chris Wallace.
The stage awaits the first presidential debate between the president of the United States, Donald Trump, and the Democratic presidential candidate of the United States and former Vice President Joe Biden on the campus of the Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio, United States, on September 28, 2020 REUTERS / Jonathan Ernst
Wallace is likely to help Biden by being a capable moderator. If Trump claims that Biden supports defunding the police, Wallace will likely correct him, as he has in the past.
Wallace is also likely to hold Trump accountable for spreading misinformation about voting by mail and refusing to commit to a peaceful transfer of power. This will free up Biden to focus on his own record.
New disclosures about Trump’s tax returns are also sure to emerge, and the president will just as confidently reject them.
READ: Comment: A softer Donald Trump could win the US elections
‘WINNING’ THE DEBATE
Arguably, Biden just needs to stay calm to win this debate. Biden claims he knows how to handle bullies, but could be removed from the script in response to Trump’s attacks.
But winning a debate is probably irrelevant in the bigger picture of things. Hillary Clinton “won” all three 2016 debates against Trump.
However, the debates could be a place for Biden, who enters the final months of the election with a significant advantage in the polls, to practice governing in the two Americas and to address some of the concerns that animate Republicans.
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For example, polls suggest that the majority of Americans, whether they support Biden or not, are living in Biden’s reality when it comes to the pandemic. Biden’s campaign has a thoughtful plan to address the crises brought on by the pandemic, but his public comments on the crisis make it look like recovery will be never-ending work.
Biden could use the debates to make sure he’s dedicated to opening up the economy with the proper precautions and may see a path that offers some positive results unless he makes a full recovery.
US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks to attendees at an outdoor “Black Economic Summit” while campaigning for president in Charlotte, North Carolina, on September 23, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS / Kevin Lamarque)
There is little that Democrats can do to stop the confirmation of Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, now that McConnell has the votes he needs.
Democratic leaders have warned that if Trump’s nominee is confirmed (before or after the election), and they win the Senate, they are open to legislating to remove obstructionism and increase the size of the court.
There is some irony in the fact that Democrats believe that the political moment calls for a sea change from the past, when they have nominated an old-school moderate to lead the charge.
But there is also something to be said for nominating a candidate dedicated to generating goodwill and trying to heal some of the divisions among Americans.
Erin Hurley is an expert on the intersection between US national security policy and national policy. This comment first appeared on the Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter blog.
