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SABAH SURVEYS | Warisan Plus leads Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) in the Sabah state elections, the think tank Ilham Center observed.
Of the 73 seats up for grabs, he predicted that Warisan Plus would comfortably win 23 while GRS would secure 19. The scales tipped in favor of Warisan Plus in 14 of the remaining 31 seats, while GRS had a good shot in five.
Ilham admitted that the fights in the other 12 seats were too close to call. He did not detail which seats they were.
Among the reasons for his analysis are the “confused” and ineffective messages from GRS and the lack of cohesion between allies Umno and Bersatu.
In an analysis published on the eve of Election Day, Ilham said his researchers on the ground found that many, especially older voters, were unfamiliar with GRS.
The new alliance was revealed on the day of the nomination by Bersatu President Muhyiddin Yassin.
Read more: Who’s Who is Sabah 2020 Pick
He also pointed out how voters were confused by the many clashes between the GRS parties, as well as by all the different logos they were using in the elections, including the BN, PBS, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (Star) and the untested Perikatan. Nasional (PN). logo.
“For GRS, it is not clear who leads the position as electoral director. Muhyiddin has failed to resolve the seat assignment negotiations between BN, PN and PBS.
“Umno and BN are presenting almost 90 percent of the new candidates as part of their approach. The stubbornness and ego among the leaders (for not) committing to direct fights may give Warisan Plus a slight edge in some seats, ”Ilham said.
Another point of confusion was the use of Muhyiddin in GRS campaign material when he was not a candidate.
“PN had no major issues other than conveying Muhyiddin’s image with the message ‘Abah Kita Bah‘(our father) … the word’dad’ it is not used here to refer to the father or someone influential, ”he said.
“The use of the prime minister’s face on posters across Sabah has caused confusion because he does not oppose or consider himself the prime minister. This strategy has not helped boost PN’s strength in Sabah because this election is more local, ”he added.
Read more: Sabah Decides 2020: Making sense of players, parties and battles
The group of experts also noted the friction between Umno and Bersatu.
“In our observations on the ground, the Umno and Bersatu machinery did not work together,” Ilham said.
‘Shafie still has an advantage’
In contrast, Ilham noted that Warisan Plus’ “Sabah for Sabahans” and “unity” message struck a chord with voters.
This was especially because the candidates in all 73 seats projected the same narrative, he observed.
Compared to Muhyiddin, he noted that voters were more inclined to current Prime Minister Shafie and perceived him as the clear leader of Warisan Plus.
“We compared the aura of the two leaders. On average, Shafie still has the upper hand. Muhyiddin’s popularity on the peninsula seems quite limited here, ”he added.
However, Ilham noted that some voters were unhappy with Shafie’s Warisan administration about the Covid-19 aid, preferring PN and BN in this regard.
“It is clear that the federal government is seen to help them more, while the state government is said to be less comprehensive.
“They discussed why the distribution was done selectively,” he said without elaborating.
Voters, especially state public officials, were also unhappy with the way Shafie allegedly “interfered” by appointing the people of Semporna to high-ranking positions in state government.
Ilham said his analysis was based on field observations at the 73 seats, research, focus field discussions and interviews conducted between Sept. 8 and Sept. 24.
Election day is tomorrow.
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