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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrat Joe Biden appeared to take a slight lead over President Donald Trump in Florida in the closing days of the 2020 U.S. election campaign, with the two candidates caught in a tie in North Carolina and Arizona, according to Reuters / Ipsos opinion polls published on Monday.
A week earlier, Reuters / Ipsos polls showed Trump and Biden in a statistical tie in all three states.
A final Reuters / Ipsos national poll showed Biden with an absolute majority among all likely voters: 52% said they supported the Democratic candidate while 44% said they were voting for Republican Trump.
The national poll, conducted from October 29 to November 2, collected responses from 1,333 adults, including 914 likely voters. The national survey has a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
Reuters / Ipsos also surveyed potential voters in six states – Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – who will play a critical role in deciding whether Trump wins a second term or whether Biden removes him.
Below is a state-by-state analysis of Reuters / Ipsos findings, based on online responses from potential voters:
FLORIDA (October 27 – November 1)
* Vote for Biden: 50%
* Vote for Trump: 46%
* A previous poll showed Biden leading Trump 49% -47%, effectively a tie because the margin was within the poll’s credibility range.
* 41% said they had already voted.
* 47% said that Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44% said Trump would be better off.
* 53% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 42% said Biden would be better off.
ARIZONA (October 27 to November 1):
* Vote for Biden: 49%
* Vote for Trump: 47%
* The two are statistically linked as the margin is within the credibility range of the survey.
* A previous poll also showed a statistically even career, with 48% for Biden and 46% for Trump.
* 49% said they had already voted.
* 49% said that Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 41% said Trump would be better off.
* 52% said Trump would handle the economy better. 42% said Biden would be better off.
NORTH CAROLINA (October 27 – November 1):
* Vote for Biden: 49%
* Vote for Trump: 48%
* Since the margin is within the poll’s credibility range, the race is statistically tied, as it was in the previous poll when Biden was 49% versus Trump’s 48%.
* 43% said they had already voted.
* 49% said that Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 43% said Trump would be better off.
* 51% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 43% said Biden would be better off.
MICHIGAN (October 27 to November 1):
* Vote for Biden: 52%
* Vote for Trump: 42%
* Biden was up 52% -43% the week before.
* 37% of adults said they had already voted.
* 52% said that Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 40% said Trump would be better off.
* 48% said Trump would handle the economy better. 44% said Biden would be better off.
WISCONSIN (Oct 27-Nov 1):
* Vote for Biden: 53%
* Vote for Trump: 43%
* Biden was up 53% -44% the week before.
* 41% of adults said they had already voted.
* 52% said that Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 38% said Trump would be better off.
* 47% said Trump would handle the economy better. 45% said Biden would be better.
PENNSYLVANIA (October 27 – November 1):
* Vote for Biden: 51%
* Vote for Trump: 44%
* Biden was up 50% -45% the week before.
* 25% of adults said they had already voted.
* 51% said Biden would better handle the coronavirus pandemic. 40% said Trump would be better off.
* 48% said Trump would handle the economy better. 46% said Biden would be better off.
NOTES
Reuters / Ipsos opinion polls are conducted online in all six states in English, as well as in Spanish in Arizona and Florida.
* In Florida, from October 27 to November 1, it collected responses from 1,011 adults, including 670 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Arizona, October 27-November 1, collected responses from 989 adults, including 610 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.
* In North Carolina, from October 27 to November 1, it collected responses from 1,009 adults, including 707 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Michigan, from October 27 to November 1, it collected responses from 1,007 adults, including 654 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Wisconsin, from October 27 to November 1, it collected responses from 1,007 adults, including 696 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Pennsylvania, from October 27 to November 1, it collected responses from 1,006 adults, including 673 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
(Information by Jason Lange and Chris Kahn; Editing by Howard Goller)
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